Today at 15:30 MSK, the US releases three important reports simultaneously. These are the core PCE index for September, the preliminary GDP for Q3 2026, and weekly jobless claims.
In 45 minutes, Europe takes over. At 16:15 the ECB will announce its rate decision, and at 16:45 the press conference begins. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added to the mix.
Core PCE is the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy. It is this, not CPI, that the Fed looks at first when deciding on rates. For a trader this means one thing: in a single day the market gets several reasons for sharp moves.
What does the day's schedule look like?
- 13:00. Consumer confidence and inflation expectations in the eurozone.
- 15:30. US: core PCE index for September, preliminary GDP for Q3 2026, weekly jobless claims.
- 16:15. ECB rate.
- 16:45. ECB press conference.
- 17:30. EIA gas inventories.
All these events are convenient to keep in view in the economic calendar.
What is expected for the main figure?
The forecast for core PCE is 0.3% month-over-month. A month earlier it was 0.2%. The importance of the release is high.
- 0.3% - forecast for September
- 0.2% - value a month earlier
- High - stated importance of the release
Why is this not an ordinary Thursday?
Three publications come out simultaneously. Inflation, economic growth and the labor market hit the market in a single candle.
Then the euro kicks in. In 45 minutes the ECB takes over, and for the euro this is already the second separate window.
What is in focus?
The list of instruments is short, but all of them are risky.
- Currencies - DXY and EUR/USD
- Gold - XAU/USD
- Debt - US Treasury yields
- Stocks - S&P 500 and Nasdaq
- Crypto - BTC
At 23:00 MSK, Amazon, Intel, Strategy and Coinbase report. This is another burst of volatility, this time in the evening.
What are the scenarios for 15:30?
- Scenario A. Core PCE comes in at forecast, the reaction is short, and focus quickly shifts to the ECB.
- Scenario B. A deviation from 0.3% causes a sharp widening of spreads at 15:30 in the dollar, gold and indices. At 16:45 the press conference adds a second wave.
The main thing: on a day like this, spread and slippage matter more than direction. If news trading is your style, it is worth choosing a challenge suited to indices and metals in advance.
Holding a position at 15:30?
Three releases in one minute, and 45 minutes later the ECB as well. A day like this either feeds you or takes you out by stop-loss. On a funded account there is a second risk: with some prop firms, a trade a minute before the release wipes out the result, while with others the entire program depends on it. Limits differ too: some cut volume during the data window, others calculate drawdown by the low of the day. This is checked before 15:30, not in the evening.