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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the producer price index (PPI) for October. Annual growth accelerated from 6.3% to 6.5%, but came in slightly below the forecast, while the monthly rate slowed sharply - from 1.3% to 0.3%.
On the morning of November 11, US index futures reversed upward: the market received a signal of de-escalation around Iran and strong earnings in the artificial intelligence sector. A day earlier, the same indices closed lower after inflation data.
After a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, bets on a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% within a few hours. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $74,080, while gold and stocks moved down along with it.
On Monday, November 2, spot gold is trading around $3,906.39 per ounce - up $30.55 (+0.79%) from Friday's close of $3,875.84. The rebound follows Friday's plunge of nearly 3.5% to a one-year low. Reuters recorded $3,900.05 (+0.6%) at the start of the Asian session.
On Friday, October 30, XAU/USD lost more than 3% over the session and plunged to $3,891 — the lowest level since October 28, 2025. Just the day before, on October 29, the metal held around $4,000.
On Friday, Ethereum dipped below $2,200, losing 3-4% for the day. Over 24 hours, $360.5 million worth of positions were forcibly closed on the market, and almost all of that amount was bets on growth.
Spot gold on Friday lost the psychological mark of $4,000 per ounce and traded at $3,997.25 (-0.58% for the day). Silver fell almost 2%, to $51.147 - the lowest since November 2025. For gold, this is the second consecutive day of decline and about -3.5% for the month.
On October 29, XAU/USD fell more than 1% - from the day's high of $4,069 to $4,019. Strong US economic data interrupted gold's three-day winning streak and reinforced the market's bet that the Fed will raise rates in December.
September PCE (personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's key inflation gauge) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, while the US economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter - stronger than forecast. Buyers picked up the dollar, and the loonie gave up ground.
On October 29, the euro fell to 1.1104 - its weakest level since May 2025. The reason is twofold: the ECB left rates unchanged, while US inflation accelerated, and the market began seriously expecting not a cut but a Fed rate hike in December.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, the government agency that calculates GDP) published its first estimate of Q3 growth on October 29 at 15:30 Moscow time - 3.4% annualized versus the expected 3.2%. The inflation component of the same report came in noticeably softer than forecast.
The US published the PCE index for September. The monthly price increase came in below expectations, while annual inflation accelerated: headline to 3.6%, core to 3.1%.
Gold (XAU/USD) slipped to $4,036 on Thursday, losing 0.76% for the day and ending a three-day winning streak. The reason is the outcome of the Fed meeting: the rate was left untouched, but the option of a hike in December remained on the table, and key data on this issue is released today.
Alphabet (Google's parent company) shares plunged almost 10% in after-hours trading following its quarterly report. On the morning of October 29, this dragged Nasdaq 100 futures down to 29,620 points.
Brent futures (the North Sea benchmark crude) fell about 1% on Thursday to $114.20 a barrel, while WTI (the U.S. benchmark) dropped 1.4% to $101.40. The market is simultaneously pricing in two scenarios from Washington: an offer of talks to Iran and preparations for a strike after the November 3 election.
A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
Over the past 24 hours, $356 million worth of positions were forcibly closed on the crypto market's futures, and almost 60% of them were longs. Bitcoin dropped from $81,700 to $79,800 during the Asian session on Thursday, cutting short a two-day rebound.
The decision was made by a vote of 10 to 2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack insisted on an immediate 0.25 percentage point increase. Six weeks earlier, the committee had made the same decision unanimously.
Three large holders (known as whales) transferred a total of 6,168 BTC to Coinbase Prime - the division of the Coinbase exchange for institutional clients - overnight, about $498.5 million. This is happening with Bitcoin priced around $80,800, that is, at the month's lows.
The pair recovered from a drop to a monthly low around 156.00 and returned almost to 158.00 in a V-shaped move - the third consecutive rising session. The dollar is being pulled up ahead of the Fed decision, which will be released today at 21:00 Moscow time.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
On Tuesday XAU/USD hit an intraday low of $3,989, reversed and gained more than 1%, rising to $4,061. The rally occurred despite a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
On Monday, October 26, the dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yen is the weakest in the basket, the pound slipped from its recent peak of 1.3419 to levels below 1.3350.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
