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The euro against the dollar has fallen to its lowest level in a year and a half, while the DXY dollar index has risen to 103.08 - also an 18-month high. By the European session, the pair had recovered part of the decline and is holding around 1.1090.
October inflation in the US came in above forecast, and the government bond market responded with a sell-off. The DXY dollar index stands at 102.22 - a high since October 28, and the market considers a Fed rate hike on December 9 almost a done deal: 91.9% according to CME FedWatch versus 84% the day before.
US October prices rose faster than expected, and the market almost unanimously bet on a Fed rate hike on December 9. The euro lost 0.28% over the day and is trading around 1.1190.
Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), indicated on the morning of November 10 that the rate hike cycle in the eurozone is not over. His words were published at 11:44 MSK, in the middle of the European session.
The October US employment report (NFP) was released on November 6 and showed 165K new jobs against a forecast of 65K. The pound lost about 0.6% against the dollar and fell below the 1.3400 level.
The October US labor market report came in more than double expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate hike at the December 9 meeting rose to 73%. US Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar strengthened.
Ante Zigman, a member of the ECB Governing Council (the body that actually decides on the rate), said in comments to Bloomberg that the chance of another hike at the December meeting is high. The euro barely reacted to this: EUR/USD traded around 1.1220, slightly below the day's levels.
The rate was raised by 25 basis points, from 3.75% to 4%, exactly as the market expected. In the minutes, the Bank of England stated directly: further increases will most likely be needed, because inflation could approach 5% by mid-2027.
The German statistics were released on Thursday at 10:00 Moscow time and came in weaker than consensus. EUR/USD rolled back from session highs to just below 1.1250, but the pair still ends the week in positive territory.
The euro gained more than 0.6% against the dollar on Wednesday and approached four-week highs. Two reasons came together at once: price growth in the eurozone accelerated to a three-year peak, and the Democrats won the US midterm congressional elections.
Eurostat published a preliminary estimate of consumer inflation for October: 4% year-on-year versus 3.8% in September. The figure came in exactly in line with consensus, but the overall price level in the bloc remains twice the ECB's 2% benchmark.
The final eurozone data for October came in weaker than September's: the composite business activity index dropped to 51.7 versus 53.1 a month earlier. The release took place on November 4 at around 12:01 Moscow time.
The Eurozone consumer price report is due on November 4 - forecast at 4.0% year-on-year versus 3.8% a month earlier. The US session adds ADP employment data and the ISM services business activity index, while in the US Democrats have taken both the House and the Senate.
Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB Governing Council and head of the National Bank of Slovakia, said on Monday, November 2, that action must be taken before high inflation becomes the norm for everyone. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD gained about 0.7% and traded near 1.1230.
On the morning of November 2, the head of the Bank of Japan once again signaled readiness to raise the key rate. No specific dates or figures were announced, but for the market this is not the first such hint in recent months.
From November 2 to 6, the market will get four reasons to move at once: the US midterm congressional elections, decisions from four central banks and the US employment report on Friday. The dollar enters this week after two weeks of decline and, for the first time in a long while, at its 200-week moving average.
The statistical office Destatis published preliminary data on Friday, October 30: annual consumer price growth in Germany slowed from 3.3% in September to 2.8% in October. The market expected 3.1%, meaning inflation came in noticeably weaker than forecast.
Istat (Italy's national statistics agency) published its preliminary October inflation estimate on October 30 at 13:01 MSK: +5.4% year-on-year versus the expected +4.6% and +4.2% a month earlier. The miss versus consensus was almost a full percentage point - for a eurozone country, that is a lot.
On October 30 at 12:11 Moscow time, preliminary data on price growth in Germany's largest federal states were released - a slowdown almost everywhere. This is the first guide to the national figure, on which the ECB's rhetoric in December depends.
At 13:00 Moscow time on October 30, the preliminary estimate of Eurozone GDP for the third quarter of 2026 was released. The bloc's economy grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter against a forecast of +0.2% - that is, twice as strong as the market expected.
The second-largest economy in the eurozone contracted: the preliminary GDP estimate (total volume of goods and services produced) for July-September showed -0.1% quarter-on-quarter against a consensus of +0.1%. The data was released on October 30 at 09:30 Moscow time.
On October 29, the euro fell to 1.1104 - its weakest level since May 2025. The reason is twofold: the ECB left rates unchanged, while US inflation accelerated, and the market began seriously expecting not a cut but a Fed rate hike in December.
The European Central Bank on 29 October at 16:15 MSK kept its key rate at 2.65% - exactly as the market expected and as at the previous meeting. No changes to any of the three rates.
On October 30 at 11:00 Moscow time, monthly options on BTC worth $10.86 billion and on ETH worth $783 million expire on the Deribit exchange. After BTC fell below $80,000, downside protection there costs noticeably more than bets on growth.
