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Brent futures (the North Sea benchmark crude) fell about 1% on Thursday to $114.20 a barrel, while WTI (the U.S. benchmark) dropped 1.4% to $101.40. The market is simultaneously pricing in two scenarios from Washington: an offer of talks to Iran and preparations for a strike after the November 3 election.
A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
The US publishes preliminary data on quarterly economic growth. The consensus expects more than a twofold acceleration - from 1.5% to 3.2% on an annualized basis. A high-importance event: the market reassembles its Fed rate expectations based on it.
The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision today at 16:15 MSK, and at 16:45 MSK the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde will begin. The euro approaches the event at 1.1110 - this is the lowest level of the EUR/USD pair since May 2025.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
On Tuesday XAU/USD hit an intraday low of $3,989, reversed and gained more than 1%, rising to $4,061. The rally occurred despite a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
On October 28 at 21:00 Moscow time, the Fed will announce its rate decision, and the market expects almost no move: the probability of a hike fell from 73% to 9.4%. The main focus will be the wording of the statement and the press conference at 21:30 Moscow time.
On Thursday, October 22, XAU/USD lost more than 2% and dropped to $4,047, and in the Asian session on October 23 it reached **$3,986.74** - the lowest level in three months. The $4,066.64-$4,227.90 corridor, in which the metal had traded for three weeks since the start of October, was broken to the downside.
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
