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XAU/USD is closing the week down almost 4.5% and sits near $3,879 - the bottom in 13 months. Pressure comes from US Treasury yields at 5.15% and the dollar index at a 19-month high.
Over 24 hours, $1.64 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly closed on the crypto market - 513.7% more than the day before. Almost 89% of the amount came from long positions: BTC's drop to $67,770 wiped out those who bet on growth.
The pair reached 159.95 - right up against the round 160 mark and the highest since September 2. Japanese Finance Ministry currency official Atsushi Mimura said markets should not forget about intervention risks, and the rate pulled back from that zone.
The euro against the dollar has fallen to its lowest level in a year and a half, while the DXY dollar index has risen to 103.08 - also an 18-month high. By the European session, the pair had recovered part of the decline and is holding around 1.1090.
XAU/USD fell to $3,985 per ounce - the second decline in a row. The trigger is October US inflation: after the report, futures price a Fed rate hike at the December meeting as a done deal.
DXY (dollar index, the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies) reached 103.048 during the Asian session on Thursday - for the first time since early April 2025. In the previous session it gained 0.7% after US inflation came in above forecast.
The yen weakens for the second day in a row after October US inflation data. The market has almost fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and less than a figure remains to the 160 level, near which Tokyo has already entered the market with interventions.
October inflation in the US came in above forecast, and the government bond market responded with a sell-off. The DXY dollar index stands at 102.22 - a high since October 28, and the market considers a Fed rate hike on December 9 almost a done deal: 91.9% according to CME FedWatch versus 84% the day before.
Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said on November 10 that the Fed may have to raise rates further this winter. For the past few months, the market had been living with the opposite picture - talk of easing.
US October prices rose faster than expected, and the market almost unanimously bet on a Fed rate hike on December 9. The euro lost 0.28% over the day and is trading around 1.1190.
On Tuesday, gold gave back almost all of the previous day's gains - traders took profits, and a Fed official's comments about a possible rate hike in December added pressure.
After a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, bets on a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% within a few hours. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $74,080, while gold and stocks moved down along with it.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday, November 10, during the European session: if US core inflation for October comes in around 0.3% month-over-month or higher, December will require a rate hike of a full half percentage point. The October CPI report itself is released the same day.
Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), indicated on the morning of November 10 that the rate hike cycle in the eurozone is not over. His words were published at 11:44 MSK, in the middle of the European session.
The US consumer price report is published today at 16:30 Moscow time, but it will not include a year-on-year change. The reason is the US government shutdown a year earlier, because of which some of the data was simply not collected. This was reported by CNBC.
On Monday, November 9, the dollar was the weakest currency among the majors. DXY (the dollar index against a basket of currencies of the US's main trading partners) lost almost 0.4% and dipped to session lows below 102.00.
On Tuesday, the US consumer price report for October is released. The FactSet consensus is plus 0.2% for the month versus 0.6% in September, when annual price growth accelerated to 3.7%, the highest since May.
The US publishes its October employment report - the main release of the week for the dollar. Consensus expects +65 thousand non-farm payrolls after a weak +29 thousand a month earlier, and half an hour later the preliminary Michigan index is released.
On Thursday XAU/USD gained about 1%: it rebounded from $4,057 and settled above $4,100 amid the sell-off in US equities. On Friday morning the gains did not hold - the dollar recovered its losses, and the metal slipped back below $4,100 ahead of the release of the US jobs report.
On Thursday, November 5, the Japanese yen became the strongest currency of the day: money fled from US tech stocks into it, and the Bank of Japan's minutes added to expectations of a December rate hike.
Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said on Thursday, November 5, that inflation remains too high and for the Fed it is risk number one. He called the policy path clear: the only debate is about the pace of rate increases, and a gradual step "makes sense."
Beth Hammack, head of the Cleveland Fed, on Thursday called gradual rate increases the best path for US monetary policy. Inflation, she said, is too high and moving in the wrong direction, so policy must become restrictive.
The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday at 16:30 Moscow time: in the week to October 31, initial jobless claims came in at 189K versus a forecast of 196K. Layoffs in the American economy are lower than expected - and this is a day before the main employment report.
The German statistics were released on Thursday at 10:00 Moscow time and came in weaker than consensus. EUR/USD rolled back from session highs to just below 1.1250, but the pair still ends the week in positive territory.
