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EUR/USD falls for the fourth day in a row and has reached 1.1265, the lowest level since May 2025. Over four weeks, the euro has lost about 2.8% against the dollar amid a strong dollar, rising US yields and French debt risks.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
According to CME FedWatch, market participants estimate the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October 28 meeting at above 70%. The case is historically exceptional: in October before US elections, the Fed has never once raised rates.
New York Fed President John Williams said that risks to employment have decreased, and inflation remains the key problem. The dollar responded with growth.
