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A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
On the evening of October 28, the Fed left the rate at 3.75-4%, although US inflation is still above the 2% target. The decision was not unanimous: two votes went for a 0.25 percentage point hike - a rare picture that immediately pushed currencies in different directions.
XAU/USD is fluctuating around $4,000 on Tuesday and has already dipped below it, despite easing US rate expectations. Trading is taking place near $4,012, slightly above last week's three-month low of $3,975.
US trading on October 22 opened with a decline, and by 17:27 Moscow time the Nasdaq 100 index had fallen by about 2%. The day before, the same index closed almost unchanged, and after the market close it was up about 1% on futures - the reversal was sharp.
Overnight into Thursday, XAU/USD lost about 1% and moved to $4,095 - a one-week low. The reason is unusual: the market expects not a cut but a Fed rate hike in December, and money is leaving the metal that pays no interest.
According to calculations by analytics firm K33, BTC's 28-day realized volatility (a measure of the actual magnitude of price fluctuations over a period) has dropped to 1.2% - nearly the lowest value for all of 2026. The market has frozen right before the Fed meeting and the US elections.
In 24 hours, BTC gained about 2.4% and rose to $83,500 - a weekly high. The rebound follows last week's decline, when crypto tumbled along with Nasdaq on a hot US inflation report.
Since the start of October, investors have pulled more than $1 billion from US spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds through which Bitcoin and Ethereum are bought like an ordinary stock). BTC is trading at $81,266 and is 35.54% below its record high of $126,080.
On October 16, silver (XAG/USD) closed the day down 0.77% at $56.86 per ounce. From $60.45 on October 12, the metal has lost $3.59, that is, about 6% in a week.
According to a CoinShares report, crypto asset investment products (exchange-traded funds and trusts through which institutions buy crypto like a stock) lost $434 million in net outflows in the week to October 16. The sell-off accelerated after the October 14 inflation data.
On October 16 at 15:30 MSK, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) published the import price index for September: +1.1% versus August against the expected +0.8%. In annual terms, growth accelerated to 8.1% from 7.0% a month earlier.
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) has lost over the course of a day the entire spike it got from the hot US inflation report, and by Thursday was down more than 0.50% for the day.
On October 14, US exchange-traded funds (ETFs - a fund through which an asset is bought like an ordinary stock) on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana showed a total net outflow of about $171.5 million. A day earlier, the same funds took in $200.5 million.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
Gold declined for three consecutive days after higher-than-expected US inflation was released and dropped to $4,065 per ounce. On the morning of October 15, XAU/USD recovered part of the decline and returned above $4,150 amid a pullback in the dollar and bond yields.
The US stock market fell sharply after higher inflation in the US. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 - 1.1%, and the sell-off in AI- and chip-related stocks then spread to Asia, where the KOSPI plunged 8%.
Over the past 24 hours, leveraged positions worth $951.4 million were liquidated on the crypto market, with $876.3 million coming from longs. Bitcoin dropped to $80,764, while Ethereum lost more than 6%.
US September CPI came in above expectations: 3.7% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.6%, while core inflation accelerated to 2.6%. The market quickly raised the probability of another Fed move, and Bitcoin fell below $83,000 in five minutes.
At the Bank of Japan, they are leaning toward leaving the rate unchanged at the October 30 meeting. Against this backdrop, the probability of an October hike has fallen to about 10%, and USD/JPY is holding near 158.50, close to monthly highs.
Bitcoin fell from $84,200 to $81,382 over the day, losing about 2.8%, while total liquidations on the crypto market reached $771 million. By the morning of October 13, BTC had recovered above $83,000.
October 12 is a holiday in the US - Columbus Day. The stock market is open, but government bond trading is closed, so investors are temporarily left without one of the main benchmarks of recent weeks - Treasury yields.
Gold is trading around $4,215 on Monday and holds above $4,200. The metal is supported by the largest inflows into gold ETFs in four years, central bank buying and a weaker dollar.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
