The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision today at 16:15 MSK. Half an hour later, at 16:45 MSK, the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde will begin.
The euro approached the event at 1.1110. This is the lowest level for the EUR/USD pair since May 2025.
The ECB rate is the price of money in the eurozone. The higher it is, the more expensive the euro is for investors. For a trader, this means two windows of sharp volatility in a row: first the decision, then Lagarde's answers.
What do the numbers suggest?
No changes are forecast. The main thing is not the decision itself, but the wording of the statement and Lagarde's answers.
- 2.50% - deposit rate, forecast unchanged
- 2.65% - main refinancing rate versus 2.65% previously
- 0.25 percentage points - a possible hike in December, a hint of which the market is pricing in
The deposit rate is the rate at which banks keep money at the ECB.
Where is the pair standing?
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1140. The pair touched a low just above 1.1100 twice - on October 14 and on Wednesday. Before that there were five losing sessions in a row.
- 1.1115-1.1110 - nearest support
- 1.1200 - first resistance above
- 1.1215 - 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart
- just above 1.1250 - the top of the October range
- above 1.1700 - the August high
Why is the pressure downward?
The dollar strengthened after the Fed meeting. The rate was left at 3.75-4.00%, but the vote was 10 against 2.
- Hawkish vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, head of the Cleveland Fed, voted for a 0.25-point hike.
- December expectations. The market raised the probability of a December hike from 75% to 81%.
- Europe's problems. The euro is additionally pressured by France's debt and the political deadlock ahead of next year's elections.
What does this mean for a trader?
Volatility will follow one of two scenarios.
- Scenario A. The statement and Lagarde's tone match expectations - the main move comes in the first minutes after 16:15 and quickly fades.
- Scenario B. The wording on December changes - then the main surge will come at the press conference at 16:45, with a break through the 1.1110 or 1.1200 levels.
Key point: the release times of both events should be marked in advance in the economic calendar and you should decide whether you are trading the decision or the press conference.
What's next?
Statistics are propping up the decision from two sides. Today at 15:30 MSK the preliminary US GDP for the third quarter is released: forecast 3.2% annualized versus 2.2%.
- Friday, 13:00 MSK - eurozone quarterly GDP, expected 0.2% after 0.6%
For such news windows, it is worth choosing a challenge with suitable rules in advance.
Planning to trade Lagarde at 16:45?
The decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45 - for the euro these are two separate surges. You need to prepare for both in advance. But guessing the move is not enough: prop programs' rules for such windows differ radically. Some cut the maximum volume during the publication, some have spread widening alone knock you out by the daily drawdown limit, and some treat news trading as the main scenario. Checking this is cheaper now than after a voided result.