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On the evening of October 28, from 21:52 to 22:05 Moscow time, Warsh answered questions on Fed policy. Main statement: he does not believe in preliminary signals to the market about future regulator decisions.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on October 28 at 21:36 MSK that the regulator is changing the FOMC meeting schedule (the Fed committee that sets the US key rate) starting next autumn. The total number of meetings will remain the same - 8 per year - but not every one of them will end with a rate decision.
The decision was made by a vote of 10 to 2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack insisted on an immediate 0.25 percentage point increase. Six weeks earlier, the committee had made the same decision unanimously.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
On Monday, October 26, the dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yen is the weakest in the basket, the pound slipped from its recent peak of 1.3419 to levels below 1.3350.
The KBW Bank Index (a stock market indicator made up of shares of the largest US banks - it is used to judge whether investors believe in the financial sector) has been declining for the sixth week in a row and has lost 11% in a month and a half. There has not been such a long streak since the 2008 crisis.
On Friday morning, three signals at once from the Bank of Japan in favor of a further rate hike supported the yen, and the USD/JPY pair slid to 157.85. The regulator's next meeting is on October 29-30.
The UK economy grew by 0.1% month-on-month in August, against a forecast of a 0.1% decline. After the data release, the pound strengthened, and GBP/USD rose by about 0.37%, to 1.3242.
Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the ECB Governing Council, said that at the next meeting the regulator will most likely raise the rate. For the market, this is an important signal, since expectations of a tighter policy directly affect the euro and asset yields in the eurozone.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation is high. In her view, the Fed needs to continue tightening monetary policy, although the pace of rate hikes may be adjusted.
The DXY dollar index rose to 102.35, approaching the yearly high of 102.50. The main support for the dollar comes from US Treasury yields, which are near more than two-decade highs.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lori Logan said the Fed rate needs to be raised by at least another 50 basis points so that monetary policy becomes moderately restrictive and helps bring inflation back to the 2% target.
After softer inflation data, the market sharply lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. The probability of such a decision dropped to about 35-37%, whereas at the beginning of the week it exceeded 70%
XAU/USD dropped below $4,200 and hit a nearly two-month low. Gold is under pressure from expectations of further Fed rate hikes, high US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
Bitcoin pulled back from an eight-month high of $87,381 to $83,900. Over the past day, the market faced $545 million in liquidations, most of which were long positions
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