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U.S. spot ETH ETFs (exchange-traded funds through which institutions buy cryptocurrency like a regular stock) returned about $1.32 billion to investors in October. The all-time monthly outflow record is short by roughly $100 million.
The US Department of Energy (EIA) reported a decline in commercial oil inventories of 1.892 million barrels for the week. The market expected a build of 0.1 million - meaning the data came in opposite to consensus.
Three large holders (known as whales) transferred a total of 6,168 BTC to Coinbase Prime - the division of the Coinbase exchange for institutional clients - overnight, about $498.5 million. This is happening with Bitcoin priced around $80,800, that is, at the month's lows.
Today the Fed announces its rate decision at 21:00 MSK, and after the US session closes Microsoft and Alphabet report - the first two of the companies whose AI infrastructure spending drives Nvidia's revenue. Heading into the event, the Nasdaq Composite stood at 26,477.81 points.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
Today at 15:30 MSK UK Finance Minister John Healey presents his first annual budget, and at 21:00 MSK the Fed will announce its rate. GBP/USD is already at 1.3300 - the lowest since October 19.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, the forecast is 4.00%, the same as last time. At 21:30 MSK the press conference of Fed Chair Warsh will begin, and it is precisely this that usually moves the market more than the number itself.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
From October 19 to 23, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US (exchange-traded funds through which Bitcoin is bought like an ordinary stock) attracted $304.73 million, although $635.49 million was withdrawn from them on Wednesday alone. Ethereum funds closed the week with an outflow of $220.6 million.
On Friday, October 23, at the start of the US session, BTC plunged to $80,988 - the low of the day. At the same time, Brent crude jumped about 3% to $116 per barrel, for the first time since March 19, and US stocks closed the week in the red.
Brent crude oil futures (the benchmark grade used to price most of the global market) are trading above $112 per barrel. The level was recorded on October 22 at around 11:05 Moscow time.
Meta publishes its third-quarter report today, October 21. The market is looking not so much at profit as at capital expenditures (money for data centers, servers and AI chips): the company's annual guidance is $130-145 billion, and sentiment across the entire technology sector depends on it.
According to calculations by analytics firm K33, BTC's 28-day realized volatility (a measure of the actual magnitude of price fluctuations over a period) has dropped to 1.2% - nearly the lowest value for all of 2026. The market has frozen right before the Fed meeting and the US elections.
Today at 09:00 Moscow time, the UK reports its September consumer price index. Consensus is +3.4% year-on-year vs 3.1% in August. If the figure is confirmed, this will be the third consecutive month of acceleration.
BTC is trading around $82,538, but the range of its fluctuations has fallen to one of the lowest values in two and a half years. The two previous such compressions ended with a 30-35% move - in opposite directions.
On October 20 the calendar is packed from night until late evening: at 04:15 Moscow time China announces its benchmark LPR rate, at 12:00 the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are released, at 15:15 - weekly ADP employment data for the US, and at 23:05 Netflix reports. The movement will be stretched across the whole day rather than gathered into a single candle.
On Tuesday and Wednesday after the US market close, quarterly reports from Tesla, Meta, Netflix and SpaceX are released. Nasdaq values just the first three at a combined $3.6 trillion - the reaction in their shares drags the entire tech sector along with it.
Since the start of October, investors have pulled more than $1 billion from US spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds through which Bitcoin and Ethereum are bought like an ordinary stock). BTC is trading at $81,266 and is 35.54% below its record high of $126,080.
On the evening of October 16 at around 21:49 Moscow time, the Brent crude oil futures were trading above $110 per barrel. The market has not seen this level since May 2026
On October 16, the U.S. Treasury publicly stated that Japan is no longer living in deflation, which means the yen exchange rate must reflect this. This is a repeated call for Tokyo to strengthen the JPY against the USD.
On October 16, the calendar has four reasons for movement at once: inflation in the European Union, US industrial statistics, the fifth day of the annual IMF and World Bank meeting with central bank heads participating, and a morning speech by Fed Chair Warsh.
On October 15 at about 16:54 MSK, BTC traded below $80,000 - a round level around which the bulk of the market's stop orders and leveraged positions are concentrated.
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
