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Today at 21:00 MSK the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, the forecast is 4.00%, the same as last time. At 21:30 MSK the press conference of Fed Chair Warsh will begin, and it is precisely this that usually moves the market more than the number itself.
The euro is weakening against all major currencies due to the state of France's public finances and a sell-off in its bond market. The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1145 and is falling for a fifth session in a row - on the eve of back-to-back Fed and ECB decisions.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
The EUR/USD pair on Thursday, October 22, fell below 1.1200 at the opening of the American session. In the morning, buyers tried to consolidate above 1.1250, but they were knocked out of there: the euro was hit simultaneously by the French debt market and rising oil prices.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) has fallen to a three-week low of around 101.50. Over the week, the dollar lost between 0.53% and 0.76% against each of the major currencies.
France has become Europe's main problem: the yield on its 10-year government bonds (OATs) broke through 5%, and the spread with German paper reached 158-160 basis points - the widest since 2011, that is, since the height of the eurozone debt crisis.
On October 20 the calendar is packed from night until late evening: at 04:15 Moscow time China announces its benchmark LPR rate, at 12:00 the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are released, at 15:15 - weekly ADP employment data for the US, and at 23:05 Netflix reports. The movement will be stretched across the whole day rather than gathered into a single candle.
On October 16, the calendar has four reasons for movement at once: inflation in the European Union, US industrial statistics, the fifth day of the annual IMF and World Bank meeting with central bank heads participating, and a morning speech by Fed Chair Warsh.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at 06:30 MSK at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and refused to give any hints on the rate. The dollar index DXY (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six currencies) moved to 101.82, down 0.22% and a 10-day low.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) has lost over the course of a day the entire spike it got from the hot US inflation report, and by Thursday was down more than 0.50% for the day.
US September inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.6%. After the release, the market sharply raised expectations for another Fed rate hike, the DXY dollar index rose to 102.84, and EUR/USD fell to a 17-month low.
Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the ECB Governing Council, said that at the next meeting the regulator will most likely raise the rate. For the market, this is an important signal, since expectations of a tighter policy directly affect the euro and asset yields in the eurozone.
The DXY dollar index broke through 102.50 and reached its highest level since April 2025. Since the September low, the index has gained about 4% and is heading for a fourth consecutive rising week amid demand for safe-haven assets and a new wave of geopolitical tensions.
The dollar is declining against major currencies for the second session in a row. EUR/USD rose to 1.1230, while USD/JPY fell below 158.00 amid a pullback in US Treasury yields and a decline in the geopolitical premium.
Today, October 8, from 14:30 to 15:30 MSK, three important macro events come out in a row: the ECB protocols, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and weekly US jobless claims. In one hour-long window, the euro, pound and dollar will be under reaction.
The DXY dollar index rose to 102.35, approaching the yearly high of 102.50. The main support for the dollar comes from US Treasury yields, which are near more than two-decade highs.
EUR/USD fell to 1.1160, its lowest level in 17 months. Pressure on the euro was intensified by weak German industrial orders, which fell 10.6% in August against a forecast of a decline of only 1%.
EUR/USD lost about 0.85% on Monday and fell just above 1.1150, hitting its lowest since May 2025. Pressure on the euro intensified due to rising French government bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the country's budget.
Preliminary eurozone inflation for September accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.7% and 3.2% a month earlier. The core measure rose to 2.5%, which strengthens the arguments against a rapid easing of ECB policy.
EUR/USD falls for the fourth day in a row and has reached 1.1265, the lowest level since May 2025. Over four weeks, the euro has lost about 2.8% against the dollar amid a strong dollar, rising US yields and French debt risks.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
EUR/USD on Monday touched 1.1350 - its lowest level since late July. The reason: ECB chief Christine Lagarde signaled that the regulator is in no hurry to raise rates, even though the market had bet on the opposite.
Era Trade announced three changes: it allowed trades to be carried over the weekend on ByBit, revised the consequences of a first rule violation, and clarified how martingale is determined.
