US midterm elections are being held on Tuesday, November 3. Congress is up for re-election midway through the presidential term. The first results will come in during the night into Wednesday, Moscow time.
The stakes are control of the House of Representatives. Democrats need to flip just three seats to take it. That would put the brakes on Donald Trump's agenda in the final two years of his term.
There is no consensus forecast here like there is for CPI or NFP - there is only the seat count. The date is known in advance and easy to mark in the economic calendar. For a trader, this is a repricing of taxes, government spending, regulation and borrowing.
What's the arithmetic of the election?
The count is done across two chambers. In the House of Representatives, the majority is 218 seats.
- +3 seats - the net gain Democrats need in the House
- 53 to 47 - the current Senate split in favor of Republicans
- +4 - how many seats Democrats need in the Senate to reach 51
- 50:50 - in a tie, control stays with Republicans, with the deciding vote held by Vice President JD Vance
The cost of a mistake is high. If Democrats lose even one of their own seats, they will have to flip five Republican ones instead.
Where is it all decided?
In the House - three Pennsylvania districts. These are the 7th, 8th and 10th. Republicans Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry won them in 2024 by a narrow margin. Democratic wins in these districts alone would already flip the House.
- North Carolina. Roy Cooper against Michael Whatley for the seat of the outgoing Thom Tillis.
- Maine. Susan Collins against Troy Jackson.
- Ohio. Sherrod Brown against Jon Husted.
- Texas. Ken Paxton knocked incumbent John Cornyn out in the primary and is running against James Talarico.
Why is this a market?
The balance in Congress changes the speed of legislation. Both chambers held by Republicans is the shortest path for Trump's laws. A Democratic House means bargaining over spending. A Democratic Senate means influence over appointments.
The key point: on the trader's radar are DXY, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and US Treasury yields.
What will happen on the night of the count?
There are two scenarios. The difference between them is in how long the market reaction lasts.
- Scenario A. The balance is clear quickly, and the market prices it in with a single impulse in the first hours.
- Scenario B. The margin is minimal in some districts, the count drags on, and volatility stretches across several sessions.
If you plan to trade nights like these, it's worth picking a challenge for the indices in advance.
Will you be sitting over the chart on the night of the count?
Nights like these are familiar. You keep the terminal open, read every line of the count, the move is real - and in money terms it comes out to dinner for two. It's not about the forecast, it's about the notional you enter with. Prop trading works like access to the company's account: you pay for the evaluation, pass it, and trade its money for a share of the profit. Until Tuesday there is exactly one evening left to understand how this scheme works.