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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October came in at 91.7 versus a forecast of 81.2 and the September reading of 81.9. The miss versus consensus is more than 10 points, one of the largest surprises for this indicator in recent times.
On Monday, October 26, the US stock market staged a powerful rebound after the sharp sell-off of the previous week. Two stories at once served as the trigger: Anthropic's stock market debut and the talks in Tehran.
Meta (recognized as extremist and banned in Russia) announced the placement of new securities worth $35B. The money will go toward capital expenditures in artificial intelligence - this is one of the largest amounts raised of this kind among technology companies.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
Gold fell below the round mark of $4000 per ounce for the first time since July, dropping to $3,986.85. The decline followed the collapse of US technology stocks: investors sold the metal to cover margin calls on other positions.
On Thursday, October 22, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,008.86 - down 694 points, or 2.6%. The main blow fell on chipmakers: the Philadelphia Semiconductor sector index plunged 6.72%.
On Friday, October 23, at the start of the US session, BTC plunged to $80,988 - the low of the day. At the same time, Brent crude jumped about 3% to $116 per barrel, for the first time since March 19, and US stocks closed the week in the red.
In the early hours of Friday, gold (XAU/USD) fell to $3,986 - below $4,000 for the first time since July. Before that, on Thursday, the metal lost 2.81% over the session. By midday the price had rebounded to $4,029, but gold is closing the week down more than 3%.
Statistics Canada reported for September: Canadian industry selling prices rose 2.0% from August versus 1.3% a month earlier. The data were released on October 22 at 15:33 Moscow time - six days before the Bank of Canada meeting.
On Thursday, October 22, Asian markets crashed: China's CSI 300 index lost 2% during the session and fell 20% from its June high. A 20% drop from the peak is the formal definition of a bear market.
Tesla published its third-quarter report on October 21 at 23:04 Moscow time. Adjusted profit came in better than forecast - 48 cents per share versus the expected 44, while total revenue fell slightly short: $28.05 billion versus the forecast of $28.13 billion.
Overnight on October 21, Bitcoin broke through the $84,000 ceiling for the first time in a week and reached $84,726, but by the morning of October 22 it had slid to $82,600. Crypto reversed course following futures on US tech indices.
Meta publishes its third-quarter report today, October 21. The market is looking not so much at profit as at capital expenditures (money for data centers, servers and AI chips): the company's annual guidance is $130-145 billion, and sentiment across the entire technology sector depends on it.
In 24 hours, BTC gained about 2.4% and rose to $83,500 - a weekly high. The rebound follows last week's decline, when crypto tumbled along with Nasdaq on a hot US inflation report.
On Friday, October 16, the US stock market closed lower: Nasdaq lost 2.3%, S&P 500 - 1.2%. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 posted its steepest decline since April 2025.
On the evening of October 16 at around 21:49 Moscow time, the Brent crude oil futures were trading above $110 per barrel. The market has not seen this level since May 2026
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
The US stock market fell sharply after higher inflation in the US. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 - 1.1%, and the sell-off in AI- and chip-related stocks then spread to Asia, where the KOSPI plunged 8%.
US September CPI came in above expectations: 3.7% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.6%, while core inflation accelerated to 2.6%. The market quickly raised the probability of another Fed move, and Bitcoin fell below $83,000 in five minutes.
Today, October 8, from 14:30 to 15:30 MSK, three important macro events come out in a row: the ECB protocols, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and weekly US jobless claims. In one hour-long window, the euro, pound and dollar will be under reaction.
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that most participants consider another rate hike by the end of 2026 appropriate. At the same time, the market reaction was limited, as such a scenario had already been priced into the Fed's September projections.
On October 7, Bitcoin broke through $83,000 and dropped to $82,734 on Bitstamp, updating its October low. Pressure came from external markets: Brent rose above $102, and US government bond yields reached 24-year highs.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Fed publishes the minutes of the September 15-16 meeting. The market will look in the document for details of the debate within the committee on inflation, the labor market and the further rate trajectory ahead of the next meeting on October 27-28.
