The numbers behind the report. In the first half of 2026, Meta has already spent $50.918 billion. If the third quarter comes in at the expected $41.68 billion, about $37-52 billion will be left for the fourth. Any hint of a slowdown in this spending hits the entire chain of "AI - tech stocks - the dollar."
The dollar has already weakened. The DXY index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six major currencies) is trading around 101.68, near the three-week low of 101.50 from last week. On the daily chart, it is at the 20-day moving average of 101.66, and the relative strength index is 53.39, slightly above neutral.
Over seven days, the dollar has weakened against almost all currencies: NZD -1.36%, CAD -1.22%, GBP -1.08%, CHF -1.01%, AUD -0.73%, EUR -0.29%. The reason is the pullback in US Treasury yields amid doubts about the pace of AI growth.
Why this is bigger than one report. According to MUFG, in the 12 months to July, foreign investors bought $942 billion of US stocks and $452 billion of corporate bonds. The bank notes: the dollar increasingly rests on the pursuit of yield in the US rather than on its safe-haven status, and "this dynamic makes it more vulnerable to a reversal if sentiment around AI deteriorates."
Two volatility scenarios (without a directional forecast):
Scenario A: AI spending is confirmed or raised - the move is concentrated in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and the dollar reacts at a secondary pace.
Scenario B: a signal of cost-cutting - a sharp repricing of the entire sector and wide ranges in the first minutes after publication.
The next point this week is Friday: preliminary S&P Global US business activity indices for October, with moderate growth in activity expected.
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