Live updates: promos, term changes, new challenges, payouts.
The October US employment report (NFP) was released on November 6 and showed 165K new jobs against a forecast of 65K. The pound lost about 0.6% against the dollar and fell below the 1.3400 level.
The October US labor market report came in more than double expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate hike at the December 9 meeting rose to 73%. US Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar strengthened.
On October 29, XAU/USD fell more than 1% - from the day's high of $4,069 to $4,019. Strong US economic data interrupted gold's three-day winning streak and reinforced the market's bet that the Fed will raise rates in December.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
Microsoft publishes first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, October 28, after the US market close - the same evening as the Fed decision and Alphabet's report. For Nasdaq, this is a concentrated test of whether AI infrastructure investments are paying off.
On October 28 at 21:00 Moscow time, the Fed will announce its rate decision, and the market expects almost no move: the probability of a hike fell from 73% to 9.4%. The main focus will be the wording of the statement and the press conference at 21:30 Moscow time.
The preliminary business activity indices for October came in above forecasts across all three sectors, yet the pound barely gained against the dollar - but it pushed the euro to a 17-month low.
September consumer price data was released at 02:30 Moscow time and came in above August levels across all measures. The yen strengthened, and the market is once again betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike in December.
Statistics Canada reported for September: Canadian industry selling prices rose 2.0% from August versus 1.3% a month earlier. The data were released on October 22 at 15:33 Moscow time - six days before the Bank of Canada meeting.
The US Department of Labor reported: for the week ending October 17, initial jobless claims totaled 194K versus the expected 200K. This is one of the lowest levels in recent months, and the dollar immediately recovered part of its recent decline.
Meta publishes its third-quarter report today, October 21. The market is looking not so much at profit as at capital expenditures (money for data centers, servers and AI chips): the company's annual guidance is $130-145 billion, and sentiment across the entire technology sector depends on it.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation forecast looks worse than the bank's own calculations. AUD/USD rose about 0.45%, broke through the round 0.7000 level and reached 0.7017 - a two-week high and the fourth consecutive gain.
Today at 09:00 Moscow time, the UK reports its September consumer price index. Consensus is +3.4% year-on-year vs 3.1% in August. If the figure is confirmed, this will be the third consecutive month of acceleration.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, versus 4.9% in the previous quarter. This is the lowest in more than a year, and the market had expected the previous level to be maintained.
On October 20 the calendar is packed from night until late evening: at 04:15 Moscow time China announces its benchmark LPR rate, at 12:00 the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are released, at 15:15 - weekly ADP employment data for the US, and at 23:05 Netflix reports. The movement will be stretched across the whole day rather than gathered into a single candle.
On Tuesday and Wednesday after the US market close, quarterly reports from Tesla, Meta, Netflix and SpaceX are released. Nasdaq values just the first three at a combined $3.6 trillion - the reaction in their shares drags the entire tech sector along with it.
At 05:00 Moscow time, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported economic growth of 4.5% in the third quarter against expectations of 4.4%. The data came in better than forecast on almost all counts, and risk appetite lifted Bitcoin, Nasdaq futures and Asian stocks.
On October 16, silver (XAG/USD) closed the day down 0.77% at $56.86 per ounce. From $60.45 on October 12, the metal has lost $3.59, that is, about 6% in a week.
On October 16 at 15:30 MSK, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) published the import price index for September: +1.1% versus August against the expected +0.8%. In annual terms, growth accelerated to 8.1% from 7.0% a month earlier.
On October 16, the calendar has four reasons for movement at once: inflation in the European Union, US industrial statistics, the fifth day of the annual IMF and World Bank meeting with central bank heads participating, and a morning speech by Fed Chair Warsh.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at 06:30 MSK at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and refused to give any hints on the rate. The dollar index DXY (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six currencies) moved to 101.82, down 0.22% and a 10-day low.
The September report came out on October 15 at 15:31 MSK and turned out to be more than twice as strong as the forecast. But almost all of the growth came from gasoline and restaurants, while the part of the report key for GDP calculation fell short of the forecast.
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
