Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that inflation in the US has moved beyond energy. He said this on Friday, November 13, on Ethereum CNBC. If data worsen, the Fed will act more aggressively on rates.
The Fed is the central bank of the US; it sets the rate on the dollar. Acting more aggressively means changing the rate faster and in larger steps.
On these remarks, the dollar moved toward a 19-month peak. Gold lost more than 4% over the week.
Why isn't inflation going away?
Price growth proved more stubborn than expected. While everything was being blamed on supply disruptions, inflation spread to categories "where prices are not being driven by energy."
Goolsbee listed what is pressuring prices:
- Services and healthcare - getting more expensive and won't reverse quickly.
- Data center construction - pulling prices up.
- Tight oil refining capacity - will keep diesel and jet fuel expensive even if oil falls quickly.
- Wages - a lagging indicator, so judging inflation by the labor market must be done cautiously.
The Fed "definitely has work to do" to maintain confidence in itself. The economy is not currently on track for the 2% target.
Producer prices for October rose 6.5% year over year versus a forecast of 6.6%. These are wholesale prices, before the shelf.
How did markets react?
The dollar gained across the board, and safe-haven assets fell.
- USD/CHF +0.35% - the dollar rose most against the franc.
- USD/JPY around 160.00 - the highest since early September.
- AUD/USD near 0.6800 - a 10-month low.
- Gold $3852 on Thursday - the worst mark since October 2025 and the low of this year; on Friday it trades around $3890.
- Bitcoin below $70,000 - the fifth losing week in a row.
Because of the yen, the market is again discussing the risk of currency intervention. This means direct dollar sales by Japan's Ministry of Finance.
What does this mean for a trader?
One speech sent currencies, metals, and crypto in different directions. The dollar rose, gold fell, and Bitcoin closed a losing week.
The main point: the market expects a tougher move from the Fed, and bets on a 50 basis point (0.5 percentage point) rate hike are rising. A basis point is one hundredth of a percent.
If you trade such moves with someone else's capital, you can choose a challenge for your market.
What happens next?
- The Fed meeting minutes. This is the record of the rate discussion at the meeting.
- New inflation data. They will show whether Goolsbee's thesis is confirmed.
- Nvidia earnings. A separate reason for movement in risk assets.
- The Trump-Xi trade meeting.
See the dates of these events in the economic calendar.
A week of big moves, but the same account?
One person's phrase from the Fed moves the yen, gold, and crypto in a day. Catching such a range is only half the battle. With a deposit of a couple thousand dollars, even a 4% gain on gold gives an amount you don't notice on your statement. The point of prop trading is that the capital for the trade is provided by the party that tested you, not by the balance in your account. Before the Fed minutes and fresh inflation data, there is time to understand the mechanics.