US Consumer Price Report Comes Out Today at 16:30 MSK Without a Year-Over-Year Price Change. The reason is the US government shutdown a year earlier, when some of the data simply wasn't collected. This was reported by CNBC.
CPI is a report on how prices for goods and services in the US changed over the month. Year over year is a comparison of prices with the same month of the previous year.
For a trader, this removes the day's main benchmark. Only the monthly price increase remains in the report.
What figure will remain?
The market expects a monthly increase of +0.2% after +0.6% the month before.
- +0.2% - the forecast for the monthly figure today
- +0.6% - the monthly increase in the previous report
- year over year - this figure will not be in the publication
Why did the annual figure disappear?
A shutdown hits not only agencies but also statistics.
- Shutdown. A halt in the work of US federal agencies when Congress fails to agree on a budget.
- No one collected prices. The employees who record prices in stores and services did not work during those weeks.
- The base disappeared. No measurements for the previous period - no correct base for calculating year over year.
What does this mean for a trader?
The usual benchmark is gone. Annual inflation is the very figure that the Fed and the entire market look at, and it is precisely this that is usually compared with the forecast.
The main point: today you will have to work with the monthly increase, and it is noisy. A single component like gasoline or rent can turn the picture around.
The release time and upcoming Fed meetings can be checked in the economic calendar.
What to expect at 16:30 MSK?
- Scenario A. The month came in close to 0.2% - a short reaction, the market quickly returns to previous levels.
- Scenario B. A noticeable deviation in either direction - a wider move than usual, because there is no single annual figure in the report to reassure everyone.
In focus today:
- DXY and EUR/USD - the dollar
- XAU/USD - gold
- Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
- BTC - the crypto market
The first minutes after the publication of such data are traditionally the sharpest.
Sitting with a position before 16:30?
The half hour around the publication is the most expensive time of day. The spread widens, the stop executes past the level, and volume goes through in seconds. Prop programs treat this differently: some calmly allow trading at the moment of release, while for others entering five minutes before the figure is considered a violation and the account is disabled. These lines are in the terms and are read before paying for the challenge. There is still time to check before the data comes out.