Democrats won a majority in the US Senate in the midterm elections on November 3. According to Associated Press counts, they hold 54 seats, and 51 are needed to control the chamber. Republicans entered the elections holding both chambers of Congress and are now losing the Senate, while the House of Representatives is in question.
Midterm elections take place in the middle of a presidential term and renew the composition of Congress. Congress consists of two chambers: the Senate and the House of Representatives. The president's party can lose one or both and be left without a working majority.
This matters to traders because on the night of the count, the dollar, gold, indices and US bonds all moved at once.
How did the votes break down?
For the House of Representatives, Decision Desk HQ has counted 376 districts out of 435. The majority threshold there is 218 seats.
- 233 districts - held by Democrats
- 143 districts - held by Republicans
- Texas, Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina - among the states that also delivered Senate victories
What did the market do?
The dollar moved lower. The DXY index fell 0.34% to 101.51, at one point dropping to 101.25 - its lowest since late September. DXY shows the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies.
Other moves the same night:
- USD/JPY - below 158.00, a one-month low
- S&P 500 futures - -0.38% to 7568
- Nasdaq futures - -0.50% to 28,155
- 5-year US Treasuries - yield fell 9 basis points to 4.68%
- 10-year US Treasuries - yield fell 2 points to 4.929%
- Gold - above $4000 per ounce
- BTC - holding at support around $76,466
Why did the market react this way?
The driver of the move is divided power. The Senate confirms judges and officials, passes laws and launches investigations. As a result, the administration's agenda for the remaining two years is slowed down.
- AI and data center investment. Traders are pricing in friction over these expenditures.
- The debt ceiling. The market sees a risk of a deadlock in negotiations.
- The technology sector. By this logic, it fell more than the broad market.
What were the odds showing?
The outcome was priced in beforehand. On prediction platforms, Polymarket gave 76% for a Democratic win in both chambers, Kalshi - about 75%. Overnight, the Polymarket figure rose above 90%.
On prediction markets, people bet money on the outcome of an event, and the contract price is read as a probability.
- $61 million - accumulated turnover of the main Polymarket market
- more than $100 million - on Kalshi
- over $4 million in minutes - at the peak of the night, according to Reuters
What's next?
Ahead are the remaining vote counts and the final House lineup. It's convenient to keep the dates of upcoming US economic events in the economic calendar.
Donald Trump told the New York Times that he would accept the results and was ready to work with Democrats.
Donald Trump: "Democrats will send crazy measures, and I will veto them."
Did you trade the vote-count night?
The dollar, gold, indices and BTC moved within the same few hours. There was plenty to trade, but it all comes down to volume. On a personal account of three thousand dollars, half a percent on the dollar index and a hundred per ounce produce a sum not worth losing sleep over. In prop trading, the limit stops being the size of your deposit: the company provides the capital, you trade within its risk limits and take an agreed share of the result. It's calmer to work through this mechanic now than on the next night like this.