US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP, the main monthly report on new jobs) for October: +165K versus the forecast of +65K. September was revised upward - from 29K to 60K. Unemployment 4.1% instead of the expected 4.2%.
A strong labor market removes the Fed's reason to ease policy. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December meeting rose from 66.9% to 76.8% in a single day.
Stocks read the report as a sign of a healthy economy: the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.8% in the first hour of trading after Thursday's decline, SanDisk and Micron Technologies - 6.3% each. By the time of publication, the S&P 500 was holding +0.6%, the Nasdaq +1.2%. The total crypto market capitalization slipped 0.5% over the day.
BTC is testing the 50-week simple moving average at $77,533 - a line that had served as support since mid-September. The price is now below it, and this is the first thing to watch next week.
Were you in a long when the jobs data came out?
The report at 165K versus a forecast of 65 - and the price moves without you or against you while you stare at the candle. What usually gets in the way of capturing a day like this is one thing: with a couple thousand in your account, even a correct BTC entry yields a result the size of dinner. Prop trading is structured so that the company provides the notional for the trade: you pay for the evaluation, stay within its loss limits, and receive an agreed share of the profit. The December Fed meeting is already on the horizon; it makes sense to study the scheme before then.