AMD reports third-quarter results on the night of November 4. The results come out after the US session closes, and the management call with investors begins at 01:00 Moscow time.
Options on the stock imply a move of up to 11% in a single session. This is the range of fluctuation the market expects, calculated from options prices on the reporting date.
The stock came into the report battered: on Monday it closed at $466.84, down 7.52% and near the low of the day. For a trader, the risk isn't in the numbers but in the opening gap, which drags the entire chip sector along with it.
What numbers are expected?
The company's own guidance. On August 4, AMD guided the market to revenue of about $13.0 billion, plus or minus $300 million, and an adjusted gross margin of about 56%.
- $1.95 per share - TipRanks consensus for earnings versus $1.20 a year earlier
- $13.10 billion - revenue on the same consensus, up 41.6% year over year
- $1.97 and $13 billion - Bloomberg estimates for earnings and revenue
What are they watching by segment?
The key number is data centers. This is the segment that carries AMD's entire growth story.
- $8.19 billion - data centers, up 88% year over year
- above $3.06 billion - client segment, i.e. PC processors, up 11%
- $655 million - gaming, down 49%
The key point of the release is the fourth-quarter guidance for the client segment.
Why did the stock come in at its lows?
The blow came from Intel. On Friday, AMD lost 10.88% and closed at $504.80 after the competitor's warning. Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15-16 billion versus the expected $17 billion and cited a deeper PC market slump.
On Monday, selling continued without any news from AMD itself: opened at $510.71, closed at $466.84, volume of 32.2 million shares.
- Intel - down 9% for the session
- Micron, Sandisk, Seagate and Western Digital - down 6-8%
- Nvidia - held up better than the rest
- 7 out of 10 S&P 500 stocks - were rising, yet it was the chip sector that fell
The scale of the sell-off. During the session, the chip sector lost over $400 billion in market capitalization. Since October 6, chips and memory have dropped by $3.7 trillion, of which AMD accounts for $298 billion. The stock is 29% below its October record above $658.
What scenarios for the night?
As of November 2, options implied a move of 8-11%: 8.95% per TipRanks, 8.3% per EarningsWatcher, 10.85% per Benzinga Pro. Key levels are $425 on the downside and $510 on the upside.
- Scenario A. The numbers and guidance meet expectations, the overnight range stays within the implied 8-11% and narrows toward the session open.
- Scenario B. A strong deviation in data centers or client guidance throws the stock outside the range, the opening gap drags the entire chip sector along with it, and Nasdaq with it.
Key point: AMD's report moves not just one stock but the entire sector, so the date is worth keeping in the economic calendar alongside macro data.
If you trade individual stocks on a prop account, pick a challenge suited to this market in advance.
Planning an overnight candle on AMD?
The entire outcome of such a trade is decided in a couple of minutes after the release. At that moment you may not even be at the terminal. That's why what matters is what the rules actually allow you: some prop firms don't have individual stocks on their list of instruments, some cap volume on a single stock, and the post-earnings gap counts toward the daily drawdown at the opening price. These points are read before paying for an evaluation. A filter by market and style immediately shows who permits overnight earnings and who takes away the account for it.