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By 11:07 Moscow time on October 30, the Nasdaq 100 futures were losing more than 2% and trading around 28,960 points. The reason: weak guidance from three of the largest technology companies at once and growing concerns over their spending on artificial intelligence.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
The UK economy grew by 0.1% month-on-month in August, against a forecast of a 0.1% decline. After the data release, the pound strengthened, and GBP/USD rose by about 0.37%, to 1.3242.
The US stock market fell sharply after higher inflation in the US. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 - 1.1%, and the sell-off in AI- and chip-related stocks then spread to Asia, where the KOSPI plunged 8%.
Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the ECB Governing Council, said that at the next meeting the regulator will most likely raise the rate. For the market, this is an important signal, since expectations of a tighter policy directly affect the euro and asset yields in the eurozone.
At the Bank of Japan, they are leaning toward leaving the rate unchanged at the October 30 meeting. Against this backdrop, the probability of an October hike has fallen to about 10%, and USD/JPY is holding near 158.50, close to monthly highs.
Today at 15:30 MSK, the US consumer inflation report for September will be released. Headline CPI is expected at 3.6% year-on-year versus 3.4% in August, with gasoline prices potentially making the main contribution to the acceleration.
In the week through October 9, investors withdrew about $1.246 billion from US spot ETFs on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. A week earlier, these same products recorded net capital inflows.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation is high. In her view, the Fed needs to continue tightening monetary policy, although the pace of rate hikes may be adjusted.
Bitcoin fell from $84,200 to $81,382 over the day, losing about 2.8%, while total liquidations on the crypto market reached $771 million. By the morning of October 13, BTC had recovered above $83,000.
October 12 is a holiday in the US - Columbus Day. The stock market is open, but government bond trading is closed, so investors are temporarily left without one of the main benchmarks of recent weeks - Treasury yields.
Gold is trading around $4,215 on Monday and holds above $4,200. The metal is supported by the largest inflows into gold ETFs in four years, central bank buying and a weaker dollar.
On October 9, gold gained more than 1.4% and rose to $4,207 per ounce, recovering from a daily low of around $4,130. The metal was supported by weak US consumer sentiment data, falling government bond yields, and a weaker dollar.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $244.1 million on October 8, and a day earlier the outflow was $484.9 million. Over two sessions, about $729 million exited the category, while Ethereum ETFs remain in the red for the eighth consecutive trading day.
Today at 17:00 MSK, the preliminary University of Michigan survey will be released. The market's main focus is inflation expectations: in September, the one-year-ahead figure rose from 4.0% to 4.6%, while five-year expectations climbed to 3.4%.
Gold is recovering for the second day in a row after falling to $4,066, a two-month low. By the morning of October 9, XAU/USD had risen to the $4,140-4,150 area, adding about 2% from the weekly low.
Initial jobless claims in the US came in at 197K versus a forecast of 200K. The market read the data as a signal of no mass layoffs: government bond yields rose, while US indices moved lower.
Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation in the US remains too high and further rate hikes are still necessary. At the same time, new steps may come with pauses, rather than at every consecutive meeting.
Today, October 8, from 14:30 to 15:30 MSK, three important macro events come out in a row: the ECB protocols, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and weekly US jobless claims. In one hour-long window, the euro, pound and dollar will be under reaction.
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that most participants consider another rate hike by the end of 2026 appropriate. At the same time, the market reaction was limited, as such a scenario had already been priced into the Fed's September projections.
Gold declined after the publication of the minutes of the September Fed meeting. XAU/USD briefly dropped to $4,066, the lowest level in about two months, amid a stronger dollar and rising US bond yields.
The September New York Fed survey showed Americans' one-year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 3.9% versus 3.6% a month earlier. This is the highest reading since May 2023 and another argument for the Fed to remain cautious with rates.
The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has risen to 5.70%, the highest level since 2002. Rising yields increase pressure on gold, raise borrowing costs and make stocks less attractive relative to government debt.
