Report figures released October 22 at 15:30 MSK:
▫ Initial claims - 194K (forecast 200K, 200K a week earlier after revision from 199K)
▫ 4-week average - 197.75K, 1K below the previous reading
▫ Continuing claims (those receiving benefits for more than the first week) - 1.728M for the week ending October 10, up 25K versus a forecast of 1.720M
Initial claims are the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. The fewer there are, the fewer layoffs. The data is released every Thursday and is considered the fastest indicator of the US labor market - faster than the monthly NFP.
The picture is twofold: new layoffs are below expectations, but continuing claims are rising. That is, few people are being laid off, but those already laid off are finding it harder to get a job.
Reaction: the DXY dollar index returned to 101.80, interrupting a multi-day decline - before the report it held near a three-week low. Gold, on the dollar's strengthening, fell below $4,100 per ounce.
A strong labor market reduces the arguments for a rapid Fed rate cut. The next batch of claims data is on Thursday, in a week, at the same 15:30 MSK.
Were you waiting for that 15:30 with an open position?
Thursday claims are quiet data that regularly move DXY and gold out of nowhere. And here's where the unpleasant part comes in: at some prop firms, trading at the moment the statistics are released is considered a violation outright, at others only entry two minutes before the release is blocked, and for some it's normal trading. The difference in rules decides whether your strategy survives to payout or the account gets closed over a single trade. These things are read before paying for a challenge account, not in a chat with support.