Bureau of Labor Statistics data was published on Friday, November 6, at 16:30 Moscow time. About 70 thousand new jobs were expected, 165 thousand were received. September, which was initially reported as a disastrous 29 thousand, was revised up to 60 thousand, and August and September together added 84 thousand. The average gain over the previous 12 months was about 48 thousand per month.
Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, and labor force participation rose to 61.9%. So the indicator fell not because people left the labor market.
The growth came from several industries: professional and business services +70 thousand, health care +42 thousand, transportation and warehousing +25 thousand, manufacturing +19 thousand. Wages added 0.4% versus September against the expected 0.3%, and 3.1% year-on-year against a forecast of 2.9%. Inflation in September was 3.7%, so real household incomes are still under pressure.
According to rate futures (CME FedWatch - an exchange indicator of expectations for the Fed decision), the chance of a 25 basis point hike on December 9 rose to 73% from about 67% on Thursday. On October 28, the Fed left the rate at 3.75-4.00% by a vote of 10 to 2: Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted for a hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had previously said the labor market is holding up and inflation is more concerning.
Before the December 8-9 meeting, October inflation data and another employment report will be released. In a Reuters poll, all 100 economists expect a rate hike.
Traded the dollar at 16:30?
You were sitting at the terminal when the number came out and saw the dollar move up. It was possible to trade that, the question is the amount: with a deposit of a couple thousand - coffee money, with an account of a hundred thousand - a normal workday. Prop trading gives you trading nominal from the company: a paid selection process with loss limits, then its account and an agreed share of the profit. Before December 9, inflation and employment will still be released, so there is time to figure it out.