The Office for National Statistics publishes its preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the third quarter at 10:00 Moscow time. This is the country's official statistical service.
The preliminary estimate is the first and still incomplete calculation of economic growth. The market expects an acceleration to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter versus 0.5% in the second. The annual rate is seen by consensus at 1.9% versus 1.4%.
For a trader, this is the main risk of the morning. GBP/USD approaches the release around 1.3275, which is the lowest since mid-October.
What exactly is being released
Along with the quarterly figure, the monthly GDP for September is also published. The same release also includes industrial output.
- 0.0% - forecast for monthly GDP in September after +0.1% in August
- -0.3% - forecast for monthly industrial production after a 0.8% rise
Why is the figure sensitive?
The rate in Britain is rising again. On 5 November the Bank of England raised the base rate to 4.00% by a vote of 8 to 1. This is the first hike in more than three years.
- Clare Lombardelli. The Deputy Governor said she does not rule out another move in December.
- Megan Greene. An external member of the committee told the Financial Times that wage growth in the country is too high.
- 17 December. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for this date.
Where does the pound stand?
The pair slid from 1.3450 on Tuesday to below 1.3300. About three-fifths of the rally from the November peak of 1.3500 (4-5 November) has been given back.
- 1.3270 - the nearest support area
- 1.3380 - the broken trendline from above
- 1.3460 - the 10 November high
What else is on the calendar?
The day does not end with UK data. At 16:30 Moscow time, US jobless claims are released: forecast 195k after 189k.
- 17:00 Moscow time - six Fed representatives begin speaking, the first being Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Fed
- 9 December - the market prices a Fed rate hike at almost 90%, with the upper bound moving to 4.25%, that is, above the British rate
All these dates are collected in the economic calendar.
What to expect on volatility?
- Scenario A. The figure is close to 0.7% - the 1.3270-1.3380 range remains workable, and the impulse fades within minutes.
- Scenario B. A deviation in either direction - the pound immediately reprices the chances of a December Bank of England move, and wide candles also appear in crosses with the euro and yen.
Key point: the pound is at its lowest since mid-October, and from here it is driven by expectations for the Bank of England meeting on 17 December.
Trading programs for such data are conveniently compared via the challenge selector.
Do you trade the release of UK statistics?
Ten in the morning, the first GBP/USD candle, the spread wider than usual. Prop firms treat such an entry differently. Somewhere a trade in the minute of the GDP release is considered a violation and the account is disabled, somewhere leverage on the pound is cut, somewhere entry is allowed. All of this is in the rules and should be checked before opening a trade. A filter by market and style shows which companies allow trading at the moment of data publication.