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On 28 October, UK Chancellor Healey presented the annual budget to Parliament. The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent state body that produces the forecasts underpinning the budget) downgraded its economic growth estimates, and the free fiscal buffer shrank from £23.6bn in March to £15bn.
Today at 15:30 MSK UK Finance Minister John Healey presents his first annual budget, and at 21:00 MSK the Fed will announce its rate. GBP/USD is already at 1.3300 - the lowest since October 19.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, the forecast is 4.00%, the same as last time. At 21:30 MSK the press conference of Fed Chair Warsh will begin, and it is precisely this that usually moves the market more than the number itself.
On Monday, October 26, the dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yen is the weakest in the basket, the pound slipped from its recent peak of 1.3419 to levels below 1.3350.
The preliminary business activity indices for October came in above forecasts across all three sectors, yet the pound barely gained against the dollar - but it pushed the euro to a 17-month low.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) has fallen to a three-week low of around 101.50. Over the week, the dollar lost between 0.53% and 0.76% against each of the major currencies.
Today at 09:00 Moscow time, the UK reports its September consumer price index. Consensus is +3.4% year-on-year vs 3.1% in August. If the figure is confirmed, this will be the third consecutive month of acceleration.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, versus 4.9% in the previous quarter. This is the lowest in more than a year, and the market had expected the previous level to be maintained.
On October 20 the calendar is packed from night until late evening: at 04:15 Moscow time China announces its benchmark LPR rate, at 12:00 the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are released, at 15:15 - weekly ADP employment data for the US, and at 23:05 Netflix reports. The movement will be stretched across the whole day rather than gathered into a single candle.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at 06:30 MSK at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and refused to give any hints on the rate. The dollar index DXY (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six currencies) moved to 101.82, down 0.22% and a 10-day low.
The UK economy grew by 0.1% month-on-month in August, against a forecast of a 0.1% decline. After the data release, the pound strengthened, and GBP/USD rose by about 0.37%, to 1.3242.
US September inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.6%. After the release, the market sharply raised expectations for another Fed rate hike, the DXY dollar index rose to 102.84, and EUR/USD fell to a 17-month low.
The dollar is declining against major currencies for the second session in a row. EUR/USD rose to 1.1230, while USD/JPY fell below 158.00 amid a pullback in US Treasury yields and a decline in the geopolitical premium.
Today, October 8, from 14:30 to 15:30 MSK, three important macro events come out in a row: the ECB protocols, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and weekly US jobless claims. In one hour-long window, the euro, pound and dollar will be under reaction.
EUR/USD lost about 0.85% on Monday and fell just above 1.1150, hitting its lowest since May 2025. Pressure on the euro intensified due to rising French government bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the country's budget.
