What CME FedWatch Shows
CME FedWatch is a CME exchange tool that calculates the probabilities of Fed decisions based on rate futures prices. On the morning of September 29, it showed more than 70% for a hike. That is, it's not just one analyst with an opinion betting on tightening, but money: those who actually hold positions in these futures.
When the Decision Will Be Released
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting takes place on October 28, with the decision and commentary on its outcome released in the evening Moscow time. This is the last meeting before the US elections.
Why the Situation Is Atypical
The Fed rate is the price of money in dollars, and before elections the regulator traditionally avoids sharp moves so as not to look like a political player. That is precisely why there have been no October hikes in election years in Fed history - and the market is now betting on exactly that outcome.
Which Instruments Are in Focus
The entire dollar bloc is in focus: the dollar index DXY, US bond yields, gold XAU/USD, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and BTC as well - crypto has long been moving with rate expectations. Scenario A: the market guessed right - the reaction is short and sharp, with the bulk of volume passing in the first minutes after the decision is published. Scenario B: the decision diverges from that 70% - repricing happens immediately across all instruments, spreads widen, and candles become choppy.
Do You Trade Evenings Like This?
The Fed meeting is the half hour in which a month is made. Only some prop programs consider trades on the decision release a violation, while others build their entire logic on them. Plus, the daily drawdown limit is breached surprisingly easily in such minutes. You need to figure this out before buying a challenge, not after your account is disabled. The selection takes a minute and immediately removes programs where your style is prohibited.