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XAU/USD fell to $3,985 per ounce - the second decline in a row. The trigger is October US inflation: after the report, futures price a Fed rate hike at the December meeting as a done deal.
DXY (dollar index, the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies) reached 103.048 during the Asian session on Thursday - for the first time since early April 2025. In the previous session it gained 0.7% after US inflation came in above forecast.
The yen weakens for the second day in a row after October US inflation data. The market has almost fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and less than a figure remains to the 160 level, near which Tokyo has already entered the market with interventions.
On the morning of November 11, US index futures reversed upward: the market received a signal of de-escalation around Iran and strong earnings in the artificial intelligence sector. A day earlier, the same indices closed lower after inflation data.
On Tuesday, spot gold plunged almost 3%, to $4017.21 per ounce, after US inflation for October accelerated more than forecast. By 06:03 Moscow time on Wednesday, the metal had recovered part of the decline - $4043.62 per ounce, up 0.3%.
October inflation in the US came in above forecast, and the government bond market responded with a sell-off. The DXY dollar index stands at 102.22 - a high since October 28, and the market considers a Fed rate hike on December 9 almost a done deal: 91.9% according to CME FedWatch versus 84% the day before.
US October prices rose faster than expected, and the market almost unanimously bet on a Fed rate hike on December 9. The euro lost 0.28% over the day and is trading around 1.1190.
On Tuesday, gold gave back almost all of the previous day's gains - traders took profits, and a Fed official's comments about a possible rate hike in December added pressure.
After a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, bets on a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% within a few hours. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $74,080, while gold and stocks moved down along with it.
This week, three data blocks come out for the US, and both crypto and tech stocks are already sliding ahead of them: consumer inflation on Tuesday, earnings from AI equipment makers on Thursday, and producer prices on Friday. BTC is trading around $74,322, down 1.85% over the day.
Bitcoin dropped to $74,762 — its lowest since August 21. The trigger was a strong US labor market report: US stocks rebounded on it, but crypto did not follow. We wrote about the drop to $75,700 on the election results on November 4; since then the price has not fallen lower.
The October US employment report (NFP) was released on November 6 and showed 165K new jobs against a forecast of 65K. The pound lost about 0.6% against the dollar and fell below the 1.3400 level.
The October US labor market report came in more than double expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate hike at the December 9 meeting rose to 73%. US Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar strengthened.
On Thursday XAU/USD gained about 1%: it rebounded from $4,057 and settled above $4,100 amid the sell-off in US equities. On Friday morning the gains did not hold - the dollar recovered its losses, and the metal slipped back below $4,100 ahead of the release of the US jobs report.
At 03:00 Moscow time on November 5, the Bank of Japan published the minutes of the September meeting: board members agreed that the rate should continue to be raised. The yen is strengthening for the second day in a row, USD/JPY slid to 158.25, EUR/JPY to 177.90.
XAU/USD gained more than 3.5% on the day - the strongest daily gain since mid-August - and in the Asian session on Thursday rose above $4100, to $4135 per ounce. The acceleration began after the Democrats took both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections.
The DXY dollar index fell to 101.40 (-0.44% for the day) after the Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Yet the yen failed to capitalize on this: USD/JPY holds near 158.32, having lost just 0.24%.
Today ADP Research Institute publishes its report on private sector employment in the US for October. The consensus is +69 thousand jobs after +90 thousand in September. This is the first labor market figure this week, followed by NFP on Friday.
XAG/USD falls for the second day in a row and trades around $49.20 per troy ounce on Wednesday morning. On November 3, the metal dropped to $48.62 - a yearly low, while gold holds near $3,930.
Gold closed October with a 6.87% decline, and on Friday it hit a new yearly low of $3,870. On Monday the metal is being bought back: XAU/USD around $3,900, up 0.64% for the day, with an intraday high of $3,919. The metal is still about 30% below the all-time peak of $5,600 set in January.
On Friday, Ethereum dipped below $2,200, losing 3-4% for the day. Over 24 hours, $360.5 million worth of positions were forcibly closed on the market, and almost all of that amount was bets on growth.
By 11:07 Moscow time on October 30, the Nasdaq 100 futures were losing more than 2% and trading around 28,960 points. The reason: weak guidance from three of the largest technology companies at once and growing concerns over their spending on artificial intelligence.
Spot gold on Friday lost the psychological mark of $4,000 per ounce and traded at $3,997.25 (-0.58% for the day). Silver fell almost 2%, to $51.147 - the lowest since November 2025. For gold, this is the second consecutive day of decline and about -3.5% for the month.
September PCE (personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's key inflation gauge) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, while the US economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter - stronger than forecast. Buyers picked up the dollar, and the loonie gave up ground.
