Gold fell by more than 1% on Tuesday: from $4,148 to $4,075 per ounce. Traders were taking profits after Monday's rally. Pressure was added by a Fed official who did not rule out a rate hike in December.
What the numbers mean. XAU/USD is the price of a troy ounce of gold in dollars. CPI is the consumer price index, the main measure of inflation in the US. Its release today has become the focal point the market is preparing for.
Why this matters to a trader. Gold reacts to rate expectations more strongly than many assets. Before statistics are released, moves become sharp and levels break quickly.
How far did gold fall?
By 13:46 Moscow time, XAU/USD was trading around $4,075, down more than 1% for the day.
- $4,148 - Monday's high, from which the pullback began.
- $4,075 - the price on Tuesday at 13:46 Moscow time.
- $73 per ounce - the size of the pullback in less than a day.
Why did the market reverse?
Pressure came from Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors.
- The December rate. Waller said he would support a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) hike even if October inflation slows.
- A possible half-point move. If core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, a full half point may be needed. Core CPI is the consumer price index excluding food and fuel.
- Market expectations. According to CME FedWatch, a 25 bp December hike is fully priced in. This service calculates market expectations for the rate.
The more expensive money is, the stronger the dollar and the weaker the interest in a metal that pays no interest.
What will the statistics show?
Today at 16:30 Moscow time, US CPI for October is released. The event is in the economic calendar.
- +0.3% month-on-month versus September - the forecast for headline inflation against 0.6% a month earlier.
- 0.2% - the forecast for core CPI against 0.3%.
- BLS, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, will not publish most annual changes this time. October 2025 data was not collected due to the government shutdown.
What about the dollar and oil?
Neighboring markets moved their own way.
- DXY near 101.70 - the dollar index after an intraday low of 101.49 and a 0.60% drop on Monday.
- WTI around $83 per barrel - the lowest since August 31, after Trump's words about "positive dynamics" in ending the war with Iran.
What are the levels for gold?
The nearest support is the 20-day average around $4,061.
- $4,000 and the yearly low of $3,870 - the next levels below.
- $4,220 and the $4,400 barrier - the reference points above.
- RSI around 49 - the market has no bias in either direction.
Prop firms have different rules for trading the news; it is convenient to compare the conditions in the prop firm catalog.
Key point: the $73 per ounce pullback came right before CPI, and you will have to work between $4,061 below and $4,220 above.
Are you holding gold through the CPI release?
Before such a release, the choice is simple: sit in a position through the number or close and watch the candle from the sidelines. Prop firms have different attitudes to this. Some allow entry on statistics as a separate clause, others close the trade five minutes before the release, and still others cut the allowed volume. These lines are read before paying for a challenge, not on the day your account is blocked. It is wiser to check the conditions for gold now, while there is still time before 16:30.