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On Tuesday, gold gave back almost all of the previous day's gains - traders took profits, and a Fed official's comments about a possible rate hike in December added pressure.
After a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, bets on a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% within a few hours. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $74,080, while gold and stocks moved down along with it.
By 11:57 Moscow time on Tuesday, US WTI crude lost the $84 per barrel mark and dropped to lows not seen since late August. This is the second consecutive day of heavy selling, with Brent plunging below $90 over the same period.
Brent crude closed at $92.57 on Monday, November 9 - down $5.75 for the session. Over the past week it fell 16%, the worst weekly result since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On Monday, November 9, the dollar was the weakest currency among the majors. DXY (the dollar index against a basket of currencies of the US's main trading partners) lost almost 0.4% and dipped to session lows below 102.00.
Brent crude is trading around $96.45 per barrel on Monday versus Friday's close of $98.32. Over the past week, the futures lost 16% - more than in any week since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
The US publishes its October employment report - the main release of the week for the dollar. Consensus expects +65 thousand non-farm payrolls after a weak +29 thousand a month earlier, and half an hour later the preliminary Michigan index is released.
Tehran passed a proposal on the nuclear program to Washington through Qatar, but is willing to discuss it only after all seven of its demands are met. WTI (the American crude grade, the main price benchmark) responded with a 4% rise on the evening of November 5 and added about another 2% on the morning of November 6, to $90.15 per barrel.
The rate was raised by 25 basis points, from 3.75% to 4%, exactly as the market expected. In the minutes, the Bank of England stated directly: further increases will most likely be needed, because inflation could approach 5% by mid-2027.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) headed toward the 101.00 area on Wednesday, November 4 - a five-week low - losing about 0.5% and falling below 101.50. On Thursday, two catalysts for movement hit the market at once: US labor market statistics and the Bank of England meeting.
After the US midterm elections, risk assets were bought back at once: BTC added more than 4% and recovered from its plunge below $76,000, WTI oil fell below $93, and S&P 500 futures returned to the month's highs.
According to vote counts in the US midterm elections, Democrats are taking both chambers of Congress. Index futures fell overnight, then reversed by the morning of November 4: Nasdaq +2.2%, S&P 500 +1.8%.
On November 4, the Chinese MFA reported that China is discussing with Tehran and Riyadh the opening of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow outlet from the Persian Gulf through which seaborne oil exports from the region's largest producers pass.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, Iran's elite armed forces) stated on November 4 that four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval mines while passing along a route Iran calls prohibited. Two more vessels, according to the same account, were detained.
On the afternoon of November 3, oil quotes moved down by 3%. By 16:34 Moscow time the decline had reached this level, and by 16:49 Moscow time the decline continued - the market did not buy back the intraday move.
On Monday, Brent (the benchmark crude oil grade used to price oil in Europe and Asia) plunged 7.63% to $104.77 per barrel on signals of US-Iran talks. On Tuesday, quotes recovered about 1.1% after a report of a US strike on an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday morning BTC lost about 2% and is trading just below $77,000, erasing Monday's rebound. The trigger was a sell-off in the US tech sector: the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 10% from its recent high, meaning it entered a correction.
Gold closed October with a 6.87% decline, and on Friday it hit a new yearly low of $3,870. On Monday the metal is being bought back: XAU/USD around $3,900, up 0.64% for the day, with an intraday high of $3,919. The metal is still about 30% below the all-time peak of $5,600 set in January.
Intercontinental Exchange (owner of the New York Stock Exchange) has agreed with Trade[XYZ] to move its Hyperliquid-based perpetual markets into a regulated US framework. Ordinary retail clients will be able to trade round-the-clock contracts on stocks, indices, commodities, currencies and crypto - if regulators give the go-ahead.
WTI crude oil futures (the benchmark American grade, traded on the NYMEX exchange) lost 2.25% on Monday and slid to $99.80. This is a continuation of the correction after Friday's peak of $104.03 - a five-month high.
Brent crude (the benchmark grade used to price oil in Europe and Asia) fell to $110.06, losing $3.37 in a day. The reason is not OPEC+, which on Sunday left December quotas unchanged, but Tehran's statement that the Strait of Hormuz could be opened in two days.
Oil gained $2.63 per barrel on Friday after the fourth tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz this month. Today seven OPEC+ countries are meeting online, but according to Reuters, everything is decided in advance for December: production will be left as is.
The December Brent futures contract added $1.20 (+1.04%) on Friday and reached $116.08 per barrel after reports of tankers being blown up near the Strait of Hormuz. In October, oil rose by almost 11% - the fourth consecutive month of gains.
European countries will sell 42 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over three months. France announced this, Bloomberg reports.
