Schedule in MSK
▫ October 28, 16:45 - Bank of Canada, previous rate 2.25%, along with the monetary policy report
▫ October 28, 21:00 - Fed, previous range 3.75-4.00%; press conference at 21:30
▫ October 29, 16:15 - ECB, previous deposit rate 2.50%; at 16:45 Christine Lagarde, ECB President, speaks
▫ October 30 - Bank of Japan, previous rate 1.25%, plus outlook report
Main focus on Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair: according to Vugar Usi Zade, head of the MEXC exchange, traders are interested not in the decision itself, but in hints about the December meeting. "Already priced in" means the market has already played out the rate hold in advance - the reaction will come from the tone, not the fact.
Data following the same course: October 27 at 15:30 - durable goods orders (forecast 1.5% vs. 0.0% a month earlier). October 29 at 15:30, three releases at once: US Q3 GDP (forecast 3.2% vs. 2.2%), PCE price index (the key inflation gauge for the Fed) - previous value 3.4% annual, core 3.0%, and jobless claims - forecast 196K vs. 194K. October 30 at 13:00 - Eurozone GDP.
In the crosshairs: DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold, S&P 500 and crypto: BTC is holding around $80,200, ETH - $2,325. On the evening of the 29th, there are also Coinbase (earnings forecast minus $0.10 per share) and Strategy reports.
▫ Scenario A: the tone of all three regulators matches expectations - the impulse fades within 20-30 minutes, the market returns to its range.
▫ Scenario B: Warsh shifts his emphasis on December - sharp moves in the dollar and gold, with volatility spilling over into the Asian session ahead of the Bank of Japan.
Three press conferences in 60 hours
A week like this is your workweek if you trade data releases: 21:30 Wednesday, 16:45 Thursday, Friday night. And now the boring part: some prop programs explicitly prohibit holding a position in the window around a release, some close the account for a trade on a widened spread, some allow everything. These clauses are in the rules, and you need to read them before October 28, not after a dispute with support. A minute to filter - and only the programs where this style is allowed will remain.