Eurostat reported that consumer inflation in the eurozone accelerated to 4% year-on-year in October. A month earlier it was 3.8%. The data was released on November 4 at 13:00 Moscow time.
HICP is the harmonised index of consumer prices. It is calculated using a single methodology for all eurozone countries, so the figures for the bloc are comparable with each other. The ECB targets 2% per year, meaning the current price level is running twice as high as the target.
For a trader, this is a calendar event that moves EUR/USD and expectations for the ECB rate. This time, the pair did not react to the report itself.
What figures are in the report?
- 4.0% y/y - headline HICP versus a forecast of 4.0% and 3.8% a month earlier
- 0.4% m/m - price growth for the month versus expected 0.3% and 0.6% in September
- 2.5% y/y - core HICP, the same as in September and exactly in line with the forecast
- 0.3% m/m - monthly increase in the core measure, versus 0.2% in September
Core HICP is calculated excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The ECB considers this part to be persistent inflation, and it is standing still.
Why did the annual figure rise?
The monthly pace slowed, yet the annual figure still went up. The reason is arithmetic, not a jump in prices in October.
- Change of comparison base. The 12-month calculation now includes fresh figures instead of weaker ones from last year.
- October dynamics are irrelevant. For the month, prices added 0.4% after 0.6% in September, meaning the pace slowed.
What happened with EUR/USD?
FXStreet did not record an immediate reaction to the report itself. The pair was gaining 0.6% and trading around 1.1260, approaching four-week highs.
Key point: the rise in EUR/USD was attributed to dollar weakness, not European statistics. The 13:00 release may pass with no movement in the pair at all.
Such releases are worth keeping in the [economic calendar](/economic-calendar) and understanding in advance how the account reacts to the news window.
What next?
This is a preliminary estimate. Eurostat will refine it in the final publication along with a breakdown by component.
- The headline figure is rising - 4% versus the ECB's 2% target
- The persistent part of inflation is standing still - core HICP at 2.5% for the second month
Were you holding the euro at the moment the figures came out?
The same report at 13:00 can produce both a spread spike and complete silence in the pair. Today it was silence. Many can trade such minutes, but few read the account rules: at some prop firms, a position opened during the European statistics window is itself considered a violation. Finding out about this during a payout denial review is expensive. The selection filters show such clauses for EUR/USD in a minute.