Euro fell to a 19-month low against the British pound. On Friday, the EUR/GBP pair touched 0.8336 — levels last seen in March 2025.
What is EUR/GBP. It is the euro-to-British-pound exchange rate. A falling pair means the pound is strengthening faster than the euro.
Why this matters. The move is now in its fifth consecutive week, and the Bank of England meets next week. This is one of the most trending pairs on the forex market right now.
How far has the euro gone?
At the time of publication, the pair was trading near 0.8343.
- 3.15% — how much the euro has lost against the pound since the downtrend began
- Fifth week in a row — the duration of the pair's decline
- The pound was the strongest currency among the majors against the dollar that day
Why is the pound stronger than the euro?
The main reason is the rate. But two more factors are weighing on the euro.
- The Bank of England rate. The futures market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) hike at next week's meeting. The higher a country's rate, the more attractive its currency is to capital — hence the demand for the pound.
- Eurozone data failed to convince the market. The figures came in better than forecast, but that did not bring in euro buyers.
- Expensive oil. Brent is holding above $112, near five-month highs. For the eurozone this is a double blow: it weighs on growth and at the same time fuels inflation risks.
What did the eurozone data show?
Eurostat's preliminary estimate came in stronger than expected, but the numbers inside are uneven.
- +0.4% — third-quarter GDP growth versus the previous quarter, double the expected +0.2%
- +0.6% — growth in the quarter before, meaning the economy slowed
- Germany beat the forecast, while France showed a contraction instead of moderate growth
- 6.5% — September unemployment versus the expected 6.4%
What does this mean for a trader?
Key point: the Bank of England decision is the main event of the week for this pair. Before it, the trend rests on expectations; after it, on the actual rate move.
Keep the meeting date in view: check the economic calendar and decide in advance whether you trade before or after the event.
If such trends are your style, you can pick a challenge with suitable risk limits to match them.
What's next on the levels?
The Relative Strength Index RSI(14) is at 32, meaning the pair has approached oversold territory.
- Support: Thursday's low of 0.8345, late-March 2025 lows of 0.8315-0.8330, and the channel low near 0.8300
- Resistance: 0.8360, Wednesday's high near 0.8385, and the weekly high just above 0.8400
Five weeks of trend on EUR/GBP — did you catch it or miss it?
Five weeks in one direction and 3.15% on the pair — a trader sees such a trend in advance. And still closes it with a laughable sum, because it comes down to the account's nominal size. On a two-thousand-dollar account, such a trend produces a figure it's awkward to call a result. In prop trading you pay for selection, while the trading account and risk limits are provided by the company, leaving you a share of the profit. The Bank of England meeting is next week — it makes more sense to understand the scheme before it.