On the night of November 4, BTC fell below $76,000, and by morning it had returned to $78,000. The low was $75,700. The move coincided with vote counting in the US congressional elections.
The reason for the reaction is politics. According to the first counting data, the Democrats are taking both chambers. This contradicts Trump's pro-crypto line, and the crypto market priced in the risk with a drop.
Why this matters to a trader. The two-thousand-dollar swing down and back fit into a few hours. Nights like this offer both quick profit and quick loss.
Who rebounded along with BTC?
The whole market rose along with BTC.
- ETH $2,295 - up 1.8% in 24 hours
- XRP $1.27 - up 1.8%
- SOL $92.89 - up 1%
- Nasdaq - futures lost more than 2% overnight, by morning the decline had narrowed to 0.3%, the index at 28,200 points
Why did the market buy the dip back so quickly?
The election outcome was not news. Nicolas Quatravaux, head of EMEA at Paradigm, points to Polymarket data. The probability of a Democratic victory there had held above 75% long before voting day.
Polymarket is a betting platform on the outcome of events. Its prices show which result participants consider likely.
Options money was positioned for a rebound. On election day, block options trades on BTC totaled about $660 million in notional. That is more than double the previous day.
- $420 million - call options bought. A call is the right to buy at a pre-fixed price.
- $105 million - call options sold, meaning buying heavily outweighed.
- $230 million of the amount bought was a direct bet on a post-election rebound.
What is holding back further growth?
Spot demand is weak. $515 million flowed out of US exchange-traded funds on BTC over the past month. Roughly the same amount left in the first two trading days of November, according to SoSoValue.
Exchange-traded funds are funds whose shares trade like ordinary securities. Their flows show demand from large American buyers.
Key point: Coinbase's premium to prices on other venues remains negative. For now the rebound is being driven by options, not by live spot buying.
What to watch next?
The nearest zone of trader attention is $80,000-82,000. Vikram Subburaj, head of the Giottus exchange, calls holding above $78,000 the key test for the market.
- December - the Moscow Exchange plans to list BTC and USDT
- Vote count results - the market's reaction to the final alignment in Congress
- Flows into BTC ETFs - without a return of spot demand, growth above the resistance zone will be difficult
Upcoming US events can be marked in advance in the economic calendar.
Did you watch BTC play out overnight?
Two thousand dollars down and back within a few hours is exactly the amplitude you sit in front of the chart for. Then it's simple arithmetic. On a personal account of three thousand, such a rebound brings a couple hundred, and in the monthly total you won't even notice them. In prop trading, the trading notional is provided by the company: a paid evaluation under its rules, then its account in your terminal and an agreed profit share. While the market digests the election results, there is calm time to read how this works.