How the movement went
Before the breakout, BTC bounced about 6% from the monthly low of $79,711 and gained 2.5% on Wednesday, to $84,500. The entire crypto market grew by 2.6%, to $2.82 trillion. Altcoins drove it: XRP +4.1% to $1.37, Zcash +11.2% to $1,332 (plus 15.3% for the week). The fear and greed index rose to 55 - neutral zone.
What broke the rally
After the US session closed, Tesla fell 3% - the company cut its capital expenditure forecast. Lam Research lost 7% on a weak forecast. Nasdaq 100 futures moved down 1.1%, S&P 500 futures - by 0.5%. In Asia, the Korean Kospi dropped 2.2%, the Chinese CSI 300 - by 1.7%. Oil, meanwhile, rose on the escalation around Iran.
Where the market is now
BTC is holding just below $82,800. The key support that analysts are watching is $82,500; if it is steadily broken downward, they cite the risk of a decline to $70,000. The $84,000 level capped the price on October 13-14 as well. Among altcoins, of the major ones only ZEC is in the green (+3%, around $1,290), HYPE is losing 3%, DOGE - 2%, SOL - about 1%.
What's next
The nearest date is the Fed meeting on October 28: futures price in about 80% for keeping the rate at 3.75-4%. On the Myriad prediction market, the chance of touching $87,500 in October fell to 31% from 45% on October 12.
Were you in a position when it got wiped from $84,726?
Candles like these come at night Moscow time, when a position sits unattended, and in six hours the price travels two thousand dollars. In prop programs, this runs into rules rather than the idea: in some, crypto is calmly held overnight and over weekends, in others the drawdown limit is cut for this, and the daily loss is counted by the company's trading session, not by your clock. These points are readable in the terms before paying for the challenge. A filter by instruments and risk rules immediately shows which programs allow your style of trading.