January Brent closed on Friday, October 30, at $113.43. The price gained $2.63 during the session. The reason - another attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent is the benchmark crude oil grade, used to price most of the world's supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is the main outlet for oil from the Persian Gulf.
Today, November 1, seven OPEC+ countries are meeting online. This is an alliance of the largest oil exporters. For a trader, the takeaway is simple: oil prices right now are being set by news from the strait and OPEC+ decisions.
How much does oil cost?
- $113.43 - the close of the January Brent contract, up $2.63 on the day. The January contract is currently the nearest-dated futures contract.
- $117.64 - the price at which the expired December contract left the market. At one point it reached $118.
- $104.12 - US WTI, up 2.08%.
This is the high. The highest Brent close since the end of April.
Why did the price go up?
The reason is the Strait of Hormuz. Two reports of attacks came in overnight.
- Supertanker on a mine. Overnight into Saturday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that a fourth tanker in a row had struck a mine and caught fire. There were more than 2 million barrels on board.
- Projectile hit. UKMTO separately reported a vessel struck by an unidentified projectile 40 nautical miles south of Lavand Island. The crew was unharmed. UKMTO is the British maritime security center.
Detail. Whether it was one vessel or two is not yet clear.
What will OPEC+ decide?
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are meeting online on November 1. Three Reuters sources say the December targets will be kept.
- 1.65 million barrels per day - the cut fully unwound in September.
- 2 million barrels per day - the remaining layer, in effect for most countries until the end of 2026.
It doesn't add any barrels: because of the war, the Gulf is pumping below quotas, and an unreachable target has no effect on supply.
What to expect from Washington?
Next, eyes are on Washington. Two statements were made there.
- Marco Rubio, Secretary of State - said on Saturday that Donald Trump has not decided on resuming a strike on Iran and prefers diplomacy.
- Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary - wrote that passage through Hormuz has returned to pre-conflict volumes minus Iranian supplies.
Another date. By the end of the fourth quarter, OPEC+ must complete its review of members' capacities. The baseline quota levels for 2027 depend on it.
What does this mean for a trader?
The reference points are set. For Brent, that's $107 on the downside and $120 on the upside. Between these levels, the price is driven by news from the strait.
Key point: the OPEC+ decision comes out today, so keep the meeting in your economic calendar and size your risk for oil volatility.
What to watch next:
- News from Hormuz - every tanker attack produces a sharp price move.
- The outcome of the November 1 meeting - whether the December targets are confirmed or not.
- The OPEC+ capacity review - the 2027 quotas depend on it.
If you trade oil on someone else's notional, find a challenge that fits your market and style.
Did you see that Friday candle in oil?
Up $2.63 on the session, with a range from $107 to $120 ahead. This is a market where a single piece of news from the strait blows through weekly targets. The only question is size: on a personal deposit of a couple thousand, a move like that barely registers. Prop trading is access to someone else's trading notional: the firm provides the account, you pay for the evaluation and stay within its risk limits. The OPEC+ decision comes out today, so it's best to understand the mechanics before the next candle like that.