Bitcoin on October 12 rose to $84,254 on Bitstamp, updating its high since last Wednesday. But it failed to hold the move. By the opening of the American session, BTC had pulled back about 2.2% from its peak and returned to around $82,500.
What is happening with Bitcoin
BTC is currently trading around $82,555. Over the past day, the price is still in positive territory by about 1.67%. However, the attempt to consolidate above $84,000 failed. The nearest support is forming around $82,000. Local resistance is in the area of $83,400.
Why the rally stopped
The main trigger did not come from the cryptocurrency market. Oil rose sharply amid new geopolitical tensions and fears for supplies through the Persian Gulf. WTI rose above $94 per barrel. Brent reached $107.25, its highest level since September 16. The rise in oil increased pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Why expensive oil weighs on BTC
A strong rise in oil increases inflation risks. This supports expectations of tighter monetary policy and high yields. In such an environment, investors are usually more cautious about risk assets. In recent weeks, Bitcoin has often reacted to such external moves together with stock indices.
Is there a physical oil shortage
At the same time, some market participants consider the oil reaction excessive. Pumping through the Persian Gulf remains around 13 million barrels per day versus previous peaks of about 16.5 million. That is, the market is so far reacting more strongly to the risk of future disruptions than to an already confirmed physical shortage.
Where there is a large sell order for BTC
Above the current price, there remains a noticeable volume of sell orders. Around $84,500 , approximately $180 million in supply is concentrated. Until this volume is bought up, upward movement may remain difficult.
Altcoins look stronger
Despite Bitcoin's pullback, some major altcoins are showing stronger dynamics over the past day. ADA is adding about 4.85%. SOL is rising by about 3.97%. XRP - by 3.92%. DOGE - by 2.71%. ETH is adding about 1.22%. This shows that demand within the crypto market is distributed unevenly.
What's next
According to the options market, defensive positioning has become less pronounced. At the same time, the scenario of further upward movement has not been completely removed. The nearest important reference point is a return above $84,000 and a subsequent test of the stronger zone around $87,000. Much will depend on whether oil stabilizes and whether the geopolitical premium declines.
Did you hold your position when oil took off?
Cryptocurrencies trade around the clock, so geopolitical news can move the market at night and on weekends. For a prop trader, the program rules are especially important here. In some places, positions over the weekend are limited, in others leverage is reduced on news, and in some programs such trading may be prohibited by the regulations. These conditions are best checked in advance.