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The prop company has rewritten three rules in its evaluation programs: the earnings limit around the release of macroeconomic statistics has tripled, the minimum trade holding time has been halved, and the ban on copying trades has been lifted entirely. The changes were announced on November 11.
Reuters reported on November 11 that a Chinese defense-oriented university purchased Nvidia H200 accelerators in circumvention of US export restrictions. This is the first case in which an organization linked to the military has been publicly named as a buyer of such chips.
US October prices rose faster than expected, and the market almost unanimously bet on a Fed rate hike on December 9. The euro lost 0.28% over the day and is trading around 1.1190.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month in October versus the expected 0.23-0.3%. Immediately after the release at 16:30 MSK, exchanges forcibly closed roughly $200 million in long positions in crypto; Bitcoin and gold moved lower.
Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), indicated on the morning of November 10 that the rate hike cycle in the eurozone is not over. His words were published at 11:44 MSK, in the middle of the European session.
Austin Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Monday, November 9, that service price growth has been accelerating for several months. A day before the US inflation data, this is the most inconvenient argument for those expecting a rapid rate cut.
The US publishes its October employment report - the main release of the week for the dollar. Consensus expects +65 thousand non-farm payrolls after a weak +29 thousand a month earlier, and half an hour later the preliminary Michigan index is released.
The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday at 16:30 Moscow time: in the week to October 31, initial jobless claims came in at 189K versus a forecast of 196K. Layoffs in the American economy are lower than expected - and this is a day before the main employment report.
Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB Governing Council and head of the National Bank of Slovakia, said on Monday, November 2, that action must be taken before high inflation becomes the norm for everyone. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD gained about 0.7% and traded near 1.1230.
Statistics Canada reported for August: the economy did not grow at all, and the preliminary estimate for September is already minus 0.1%. For the market, this is an argument in favor of a softer Bank of Canada policy and a reason to reassess the Canadian dollar.
Istat (Italy's national statistics agency) published its preliminary October inflation estimate on October 30 at 13:01 MSK: +5.4% year-on-year versus the expected +4.6% and +4.2% a month earlier. The miss versus consensus was almost a full percentage point - for a eurozone country, that is a lot.
The second-largest economy in the eurozone contracted: the preliminary GDP estimate (total volume of goods and services produced) for July-September showed -0.1% quarter-on-quarter against a consensus of +0.1%. The data was released on October 30 at 09:30 Moscow time.
On October 30 at 11:00 Moscow time, monthly options on BTC worth $10.86 billion and on ETH worth $783 million expire on the Deribit exchange. After BTC fell below $80,000, downside protection there costs noticeably more than bets on growth.
A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision today at 16:15 MSK, and at 16:45 MSK the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde will begin. The euro approaches the event at 1.1110 - this is the lowest level of the EUR/USD pair since May 2025.
On 28 October, UK Chancellor Healey presented the annual budget to Parliament. The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent state body that produces the forecasts underpinning the budget) downgraded its economic growth estimates, and the free fiscal buffer shrank from £23.6bn in March to £15bn.
On October 28 at 21:00 Moscow time, the Fed will announce its rate decision, and the market expects almost no move: the probability of a hike fell from 73% to 9.4%. The main focus will be the wording of the statement and the press conference at 21:30 Moscow time.
Preliminary eurozone inflation for September accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.7% and 3.2% a month earlier. The core measure rose to 2.5%, which strengthens the arguments against a rapid easing of ECB policy.
USD/JPY rose to 158.44, and the yen lost about 0.5% after the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions. The market saw no signal in the document for a rate hike as early as October, and the absence of currency interventions further increased pressure on the yen.
Gold first rose to $4,220 after soft US inflation data, but then completely erased its gains and fell to $4,139-4,150. Pressure was intensified by rising US Treasury yields, a strong dollar and more hawkish rate expectations
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
EUR/USD on Monday touched 1.1350 - its lowest level since late July. The reason: ECB chief Christine Lagarde signaled that the regulator is in no hurry to raise rates, even though the market had bet on the opposite.
