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The pair recovered from a drop to a monthly low around 156.00 and returned almost to 158.00 in a V-shaped move - the third consecutive rising session. The dollar is being pulled up ahead of the Fed decision, which will be released today at 21:00 Moscow time.
Today the Fed announces its rate decision at 21:00 MSK, and after the US session closes Microsoft and Alphabet report - the first two of the companies whose AI infrastructure spending drives Nvidia's revenue. Heading into the event, the Nasdaq Composite stood at 26,477.81 points.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
Today at 15:30 MSK UK Finance Minister John Healey presents his first annual budget, and at 21:00 MSK the Fed will announce its rate. GBP/USD is already at 1.3300 - the lowest since October 19.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, the forecast is 4.00%, the same as last time. At 21:30 MSK the press conference of Fed Chair Warsh will begin, and it is precisely this that usually moves the market more than the number itself.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (the country's central bank) unexpectedly did not raise the key rate overnight on October 28, although almost everyone expected it to: the decision was made by a 4-3 vote. The New Zealand dollar moved lower in the first minutes after the publication.
On Tuesday XAU/USD hit an intraday low of $3,989, reversed and gained more than 1%, rising to $4,061. The rally occurred despite a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
The euro is weakening against all major currencies due to the state of France's public finances and a sell-off in its bond market. The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1145 and is falling for a fifth session in a row - on the eve of back-to-back Fed and ECB decisions.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October came in at 91.7 versus a forecast of 81.2 and the September reading of 81.9. The miss versus consensus is more than 10 points, one of the largest surprises for this indicator in recent times.
XAU/USD is fluctuating around $4,000 on Tuesday and has already dipped below it, despite easing US rate expectations. Trading is taking place near $4,012, slightly above last week's three-month low of $3,975.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday, October 27, that the government is ready for decisive action in the currency market. This is a direct hint at intervention - selling dollars from reserves to support the yen.
WTI crude (the U.S. benchmark grade, with futures traded on the NYMEX exchange) slipped on Monday from its peak level of $103.28 - a five-month high - to around $100.51. The market paused ahead of a week with three central bank meetings at once.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,009.87 per ounce by 06:42 Moscow time on Monday. This is a rebound after the worst week since June: over the week the metal lost 4% and closed below the round $4,000 mark for the first time since mid-July.
Microsoft publishes first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, October 28, after the US market close - the same evening as the Fed decision and Alphabet's report. For Nasdaq, this is a concentrated test of whether AI infrastructure investments are paying off.
On October 28 at 21:00 Moscow time, the Fed will announce its rate decision, and the market expects almost no move: the probability of a hike fell from 73% to 9.4%. The main focus will be the wording of the statement and the press conference at 21:30 Moscow time.
Brent futures (a contract for the future delivery of oil, the world's main price benchmark) closed Friday, October 23, at $116.72 a barrel - up $3.55, or 3.14%. This is the highest settlement level since April 29, and oil gained about 6% over the week.
On Saturday, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since October 15 and in four hours wiped out $404.15M in long positions (bets on price increases) — that's 93% of the total $436.44M in liquidations. Over 24 hours, the market forcibly closed $815.26M across 201,012 traders.
S&P Global released preliminary US business activity indices for October today at 16:45 MSK. The indices themselves cooled slightly, but companies' selling prices are rising at the fastest pace in more than four years - and that's a week before the Fed meeting.
In the early hours of Friday, gold (XAU/USD) fell to $3,986 - below $4,000 for the first time since July. Before that, on Thursday, the metal lost 2.81% over the session. By midday the price had rebounded to $4,029, but gold is closing the week down more than 3%.
The preliminary business activity indices for October came in above forecasts across all three sectors, yet the pound barely gained against the dollar - but it pushed the euro to a 17-month low.
On Thursday, October 22, XAU/USD lost more than 2% and dropped to $4,047, and in the Asian session on October 23 it reached **$3,986.74** - the lowest level in three months. The $4,066.64-$4,227.90 corridor, in which the metal had traded for three weeks since the start of October, was broken to the downside.
On Thursday Brent rose 2.6% to $111.66 per barrel - a five-month high, and in the evening Moscow time quotes went above $113. The rally was driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and expectations of a new military escalation around Iran.
September consumer price data was released at 02:30 Moscow time and came in above August levels across all measures. The yen strengthened, and the market is once again betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike in December.
