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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, has told staff that she plans to leave her post on February 7. This concerns the person who sets the rate for the entire eurozone, that is, directly influences the EUR/USD exchange rate.
Alphabet (Google's parent company) shares plunged almost 10% in after-hours trading following its quarterly report. On the morning of October 29, this dragged Nasdaq 100 futures down to 29,620 points.
The European Central Bank holds its rate meeting today, October 29. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts unanimously expect the rate to remain unchanged.
A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
The US publishes preliminary data on quarterly economic growth. The consensus expects more than a twofold acceleration - from 1.5% to 3.2% on an annualized basis. A high-importance event: the market reassembles its Fed rate expectations based on it.
Over the past 24 hours, $356 million worth of positions were forcibly closed on the crypto market's futures, and almost 60% of them were longs. Bitcoin dropped from $81,700 to $79,800 during the Asian session on Thursday, cutting short a two-day rebound.
On the evening of October 28, from 21:52 to 22:05 Moscow time, Warsh answered questions on Fed policy. Main statement: he does not believe in preliminary signals to the market about future regulator decisions.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on October 28 at 21:36 MSK that the regulator is changing the FOMC meeting schedule (the Fed committee that sets the US key rate) starting next autumn. The total number of meetings will remain the same - 8 per year - but not every one of them will end with a rate decision.
The decision was made by a vote of 10 to 2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack insisted on an immediate 0.25 percentage point increase. Six weeks earlier, the committee had made the same decision unanimously.
Bitcoin failed to hold above $81,687 and dropped to $80,297 on the Bitstamp exchange, down about 0.3% over the day. Buyers did not break through the 50-day moving average ahead of the Fed decision and tech earnings reports.
Shareholders of Strategy (Michael Saylor's company, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin) approved amendments: dividends on preferred shares will accrue daily rather than once a month or quarter. This is an attempt to revive demand for the securities through which the company finances its BTC purchases.
On October 28 at 16:45 MSK, the Bank of Canada raised its key rate from 2.25% to 2.5% - exactly what the market expected. The main surprise was not the move itself, but the signal: the regulator allowed that another hike may be needed.
Three large holders (known as whales) transferred a total of 6,168 BTC to Coinbase Prime - the division of the Coinbase exchange for institutional clients - overnight, about $498.5 million. This is happening with Bitcoin priced around $80,800, that is, at the month's lows.
Brent added $1.50 (1.32%) and returned to $115.59 per barrel, WTI rose $1.47 to $101.37. The trigger - a statement by Yemeni Houthis that they hit Ras Tanura, the kingdom's largest oil refinery at 550,000 barrels per day, with a ballistic missile. Riyadh has not confirmed the strike.
AMD shares closed Tuesday, October 27 at $560.26 (+$28.98, +5.45%) - the best session in the entire current rally of the semiconductor sector. The reason is specific: the company announced that its Helios systems are installed and being tested at Meta, and it will invest $1 billion in Meta's share offering.
Today at 15:30 MSK UK Finance Minister John Healey presents his first annual budget, and at 21:00 MSK the Fed will announce its rate. GBP/USD is already at 1.3300 - the lowest since October 19.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, the forecast is 4.00%, the same as last time. At 21:30 MSK the press conference of Fed Chair Warsh will begin, and it is precisely this that usually moves the market more than the number itself.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (the country's central bank) unexpectedly did not raise the key rate overnight on October 28, although almost everyone expected it to: the decision was made by a 4-3 vote. The New Zealand dollar moved lower in the first minutes after the publication.
By the morning of Wednesday, October 28, BTC had risen almost 2% and came right up to $81,000, recovering the weekend when the price dropped to $79,000. But the main move was not in it: altcoins from the top ten outperformed Bitcoin across the board.
On Tuesday XAU/USD hit an intraday low of $3,989, reversed and gained more than 1%, rising to $4,061. The rally occurred despite a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October came in at 91.7 versus a forecast of 81.2 and the September reading of 81.9. The miss versus consensus is more than 10 points, one of the largest surprises for this indicator in recent times.
XAU/USD is fluctuating around $4,000 on Tuesday and has already dipped below it, despite easing US rate expectations. Trading is taking place near $4,012, slightly above last week's three-month low of $3,975.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (funds whose shares trade on an exchange and track the price of the asset) attracted about $110 million on Monday, October 26. This only offset part of the $773.5 million outflow over the previous two sessions, and for the month as a whole the funds are still losing money.
On Monday, October 26, the dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yen is the weakest in the basket, the pound slipped from its recent peak of 1.3419 to levels below 1.3350.
