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The pair reached 159.95 - right up against the round 160 mark and the highest since September 2. Japanese Finance Ministry currency official Atsushi Mimura said markets should not forget about intervention risks, and the rate pulled back from that zone.
The euro against the dollar has fallen to its lowest level in a year and a half, while the DXY dollar index has risen to 103.08 - also an 18-month high. By the European session, the pair had recovered part of the decline and is holding around 1.1090.
XAU/USD fell to $3,985 per ounce - the second decline in a row. The trigger is October US inflation: after the report, futures price a Fed rate hike at the December meeting as a done deal.
DXY (dollar index, the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies) reached 103.048 during the Asian session on Thursday - for the first time since early April 2025. In the previous session it gained 0.7% after US inflation came in above forecast.
The yen weakens for the second day in a row after October US inflation data. The market has almost fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and less than a figure remains to the 160 level, near which Tokyo has already entered the market with interventions.
The prop company has rewritten three rules in its evaluation programs: the earnings limit around the release of macroeconomic statistics has tripled, the minimum trade holding time has been halved, and the ban on copying trades has been lifted entirely. The changes were announced on November 11.
On Wednesday, November 11, by 11:58 Moscow time, silver (XAG/USD) was worth $52.92 per troy ounce versus $51.52 at Tuesday's close. In the European session, the metal rose almost 3%, to around $53.00.
On the morning of November 11, US index futures reversed upward: the market received a signal of de-escalation around Iran and strong earnings in the artificial intelligence sector. A day earlier, the same indices closed lower after inflation data.
On Tuesday, spot gold plunged almost 3%, to $4017.21 per ounce, after US inflation for October accelerated more than forecast. By 06:03 Moscow time on Wednesday, the metal had recovered part of the decline - $4043.62 per ounce, up 0.3%.
October inflation in the US came in above forecast, and the government bond market responded with a sell-off. The DXY dollar index stands at 102.22 - a high since October 28, and the market considers a Fed rate hike on December 9 almost a done deal: 91.9% according to CME FedWatch versus 84% the day before.
Bitcoin fell to $72,934 on Coinbase and Kraken: there prices went below $73,000 for the first time in ten weeks. The trigger was the US consumer price report for October - it came in above forecast, and the market increased its bet on a Fed rate hike in December.
Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said on November 10 that the Fed may have to raise rates further this winter. For the past few months, the market had been living with the opposite picture - talk of easing.
US October prices rose faster than expected, and the market almost unanimously bet on a Fed rate hike on December 9. The euro lost 0.28% over the day and is trading around 1.1190.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month in October versus the expected 0.23-0.3%. Immediately after the release at 16:30 MSK, exchanges forcibly closed roughly $200 million in long positions in crypto; Bitcoin and gold moved lower.
On Tuesday, gold gave back almost all of the previous day's gains - traders took profits, and a Fed official's comments about a possible rate hike in December added pressure.
After a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, bets on a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% within a few hours. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $74,080, while gold and stocks moved down along with it.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday, November 10, during the European session: if US core inflation for October comes in around 0.3% month-over-month or higher, December will require a rate hike of a full half percentage point. The October CPI report itself is released the same day.
Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), indicated on the morning of November 10 that the rate hike cycle in the eurozone is not over. His words were published at 11:44 MSK, in the middle of the European session.
Clare Lombardelli, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, told the Guardian that she does not rule out a rate hike at the December meeting. For a market accustomed to expecting cuts from the British central bank, this is a reversal in tone.
The US consumer price report is published today at 16:30 Moscow time, but it will not include a year-on-year change. The reason is the US government shutdown a year earlier, because of which some of the data was simply not collected. This was reported by CNBC.
This week, three data blocks come out for the US, and both crypto and tech stocks are already sliding ahead of them: consumer inflation on Tuesday, earnings from AI equipment makers on Thursday, and producer prices on Friday. BTC is trading around $74,322, down 1.85% over the day.
Austin Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Monday, November 9, that service price growth has been accelerating for several months. A day before the US inflation data, this is the most inconvenient argument for those expecting a rapid rate cut.
Alphabet shares (GOOGL, Google's parent company) were priced at $293.52 in premarket trading on November 9 - 3.07% above Friday's close of $284.78. The reason is the announcement of two new systems on its own TPU chips, which Bloomberg called a escalation of the fight with Nvidia.
On Monday, November 9, the dollar was the weakest currency among the majors. DXY (the dollar index against a basket of currencies of the US's main trading partners) lost almost 0.4% and dipped to session lows below 102.00.
