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The yen weakens for the second day in a row after October US inflation data. The market has almost fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and less than a figure remains to the 160 level, near which Tokyo has already entered the market with interventions.
October inflation in the US came in above forecast, and the government bond market responded with a sell-off. The DXY dollar index stands at 102.22 - a high since October 28, and the market considers a Fed rate hike on December 9 almost a done deal: 91.9% according to CME FedWatch versus 84% the day before.
Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said on November 10 that the Fed may have to raise rates further this winter. For the past few months, the market had been living with the opposite picture - talk of easing.
On Tuesday, gold gave back almost all of the previous day's gains - traders took profits, and a Fed official's comments about a possible rate hike in December added pressure.
After a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, bets on a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% within a few hours. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $74,080, while gold and stocks moved down along with it.
Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), indicated on the morning of November 10 that the rate hike cycle in the eurozone is not over. His words were published at 11:44 MSK, in the middle of the European session.
On Monday, November 9, the dollar was the weakest currency among the majors. DXY (the dollar index against a basket of currencies of the US's main trading partners) lost almost 0.4% and dipped to session lows below 102.00.
On Thursday XAU/USD gained about 1%: it rebounded from $4,057 and settled above $4,100 amid the sell-off in US equities. On Friday morning the gains did not hold - the dollar recovered its losses, and the metal slipped back below $4,100 ahead of the release of the US jobs report.
On Thursday, November 5, the Japanese yen became the strongest currency of the day: money fled from US tech stocks into it, and the Bank of Japan's minutes added to expectations of a December rate hike.
Beth Hammack, head of the Cleveland Fed, on Thursday called gradual rate increases the best path for US monetary policy. Inflation, she said, is too high and moving in the wrong direction, so policy must become restrictive.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against six major currencies) is falling for the second day in a row and in Thursday's Asian session reached 101.20 - its lowest value in a month. Pressure comes from the results of the US midterm elections and a sharp drop in oil.
XAU/USD gained more than 3.5% on the day - the strongest daily gain since mid-August - and in the Asian session on Thursday rose above $4100, to $4135 per ounce. The acceleration began after the Democrats took both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) headed toward the 101.00 area on Wednesday, November 4 - a five-week low - losing about 0.5% and falling below 101.50. On Thursday, two catalysts for movement hit the market at once: US labor market statistics and the Bank of England meeting.
The ADP employment report for October was released on November 4 at 16:15 MSK: +86K private sector jobs versus the expected +69K and +90K the month before.
The DXY dollar index fell to 101.40 (-0.44% for the day) after the Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Yet the yen failed to capitalize on this: USD/JPY holds near 158.32, having lost just 0.24%.
The pair rose to 1.3500 - its best level since mid-September, and was trading at 1.3473 at the time of publication. The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) was down 0.47% and fell to 101.40. The trigger came from the US: Democrats took both chambers of Congress.
In the US midterm elections, Democrats won both the Senate and the House of Representatives. US index futures fell overnight but by the European session on November 4 had bought back the dip and turned positive.
Today ADP Research Institute publishes its report on private sector employment in the US for October. The consensus is +69 thousand jobs after +90 thousand in September. This is the first labor market figure this week, followed by NFP on Friday.
In the midterm elections on November 3, Democrats won a majority in the Senate - 54 seats according to Associated Press counts, with 51 needed for control. Republicans, who entered the elections holding both chambers of Congress, are losing the Senate and risk losing the House of Representatives.
On the morning of November 4, gold traded around $3,930 per ounce, recovering from a drop to lows last seen in September 2025. The reason is the collapse of the dollar after the first results of the midterm congressional elections held on November 3.
The US Department of Labor published the JOLTS report for September - the number of job openings in the labor market. The actual figure came in almost 400 thousand above the forecast, and the previous value was revised upward.
The Fed's Open Market Committee voted 10 to 2 to keep the rate in the 3.75-4.00% range, but left the possibility of a hike as early as December in its statement. HSBC, in its November 2 currency review, confirmed its view of a strong dollar through 2027, warning that the path there will be bumpy.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ, the country's central bank) will announce its rate decision on Friday, October 30. Almost no one expects a change - the rate is expected to stay at 1.25%. All the interest lies elsewhere: what the regulator will say about December, where the market sees a hike with a probability of about 80%.
September PCE (personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's key inflation gauge) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, while the US economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter - stronger than forecast. Buyers picked up the dollar, and the loonie gave up ground.
