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EUR/USD falls for the fourth day in a row and has reached 1.1265, the lowest level since May 2025. Over four weeks, the euro has lost about 2.8% against the dollar amid a strong dollar, rising US yields and French debt risks.
The USD/CHF pair rose to 0.8367 on the morning of October 1, a 16-month high, and has been rising for the seventh consecutive trading session. Pressure on the franc was intensified by weak investor expectations for the Swiss economy and the SNB's dovish stance.
Gold first rose to $4,220 after soft US inflation data, but then completely erased its gains and fell to $4,139-4,150. Pressure was intensified by rising US Treasury yields, a strong dollar and more hawkish rate expectations
After softer inflation data, the market sharply lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. The probability of such a decision dropped to about 35-37%, whereas at the beginning of the week it exceeded 70%
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
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Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
In August, the number of job openings in the US declined to 7.079 million versus the expected 7.225-7.230 million. At the same time, hires and layoffs remained nearly unchanged.
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According to CME FedWatch, market participants estimate the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October 28 meeting at above 70%. The case is historically exceptional: in October before US elections, the Fed has never once raised rates.
EUR/USD on Monday touched 1.1350 - its lowest level since late July. The reason: ECB chief Christine Lagarde signaled that the regulator is in no hurry to raise rates, even though the market had bet on the opposite.
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On September 28, CryptoQuant analysts recorded that the volume of altcoins traders transfer from their wallets to exchanges rose to its highest level since October 2025. This is usually what preparation for profit-taking looks like after a strong rally.
US crude WTI (the US benchmark grade) is trading around $93.05 in early Asian hours on Monday. The push came from US President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz - a key maritime route for oil exports from the Persian Gulf.
On Friday, October 2, at 15:30 Moscow time, the US employment report is released. This week this is the main macro event: the bond market has already repriced levels, and the Fed raised rates for the first time in more than three years. The Employment Situation release is indeed scheduled for October 2 at 08:30 ET, that is, 15:30 Moscow time.
XAU/USD dropped below $4,200 and hit a nearly two-month low. Gold is under pressure from expectations of further Fed rate hikes, high US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
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Yemen's Houthis announced new attacks on Saudi Arabia. The oil market reacted almost instantly: prices rose by about 4% during the session.
New York Fed President John Williams said that risks to employment have decreased, and inflation remains the key problem. The dollar responded with growth.
Bitcoin pulled back from an eight-month high of $87,381 to $83,900. Over the past day, the market faced $545 million in liquidations, most of which were long positions
