Gold rose to around $3,930 per ounce on the morning of November 4. The metal recovered from a drop to its lowest since September 2025. It was pushed up by the collapse of the dollar after the first results of the US midterm congressional elections on November 3.
Midterm elections are a vote on the composition of Congress in the middle of a presidential term. Their outcome determines whether the White House can push through its budget decisions.
This directly affects traders. Gold is priced in dollars: when the dollar weakens, the ounce rises. Along with the metal, currency pairs and US bond yields moved too.
What did the quotes show?
The DXY dollar index fell to around 101.25. That is its lowest value since late September.
- USD/JPY - broke below 158.00 and hit a one-month low
- AUD/USD - rose to 0.6965
- XAU/USD - around $3,930 per ounce
DXY is an index of the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies.
Why did the market turn?
Early counts indicate that Democrats may take both chambers of Congress. The market reads this as a political stalemate.
- Budget. Spending is constrained, and major stimulus is unlikely.
- Stocks. Technology shares are under pressure.
- Bonds. US bond yields are falling.
- Safe-haven assets. Against this backdrop, demand for them is rising.
The second layer is geopolitics. The US-Iran war is in its eighth month.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported the destruction of four tankers that struck mines south of the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian official told Reuters that the strait would be opened only if sanctions are lifted and the naval blockade is removed.
Key point: Donald Trump reportedly said that no immediate strikes on Iran are planned. Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, hinted at an attack this week.
Where are the levels for gold?
The nearest resistance for XAU/USD is $3,947. Above that come $3,970 and $3,995; support is the $3,869 area.
- $4,197 - the cycle peak, which is still holding
- 48.94 - the relative strength index on the four-hour chart, i.e. neutral
- 100-period average - the price is still below it
What's next?
The calendar is packed from here. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report and the ISM services business activity index are released; on Friday, NFP.
NFP is the US non-farm payrolls report.
Tuesday already gave a signal on the labor market. The number of JOLTS job openings for September rose to 7.523 million against a revised 7.190 million in August. The dates of these releases are in the economic calendar.
Did you hold gold overnight during the vote count?
The elections, the mines near Hormuz and Friday's NFP give gold three catalysts in a single week. Each one lands at a specific minute. What matters here is not the forecast but the rules of your account. Somewhere, trades a couple of minutes before the data are considered a violation; somewhere, leverage on metals is capped; somewhere, the daily drawdown is calculated from the worst point within the day. These points vary more between prop firms than the payout percentages on their banners. It makes more sense to check them before Friday than after your account is disabled.