US Department of Energy reported a drop in commercial crude oil inventories of 1.892 million barrels for the week. The report was released on October 28 at 17:30 Moscow time. Analysts had expected a build of 0.1 million barrels.
EIA crude oil inventories is a weekly summary of how much crude is sitting in storage in the US. The strategic reserve is not included in the calculation. The figure shows the balance of supply and demand in the world's largest market.
For a trader, this is one of the key oil events of the week. The divergence between the actual figure and the forecast moves futures in the very first minutes after publication.
What did the numbers show?
- -1.892 million barrels - actual change in inventories
- +0.1 million barrels - market forecast
- -3.06 million barrels - previous week
Two weeks in a row. In total, almost 5 million barrels have left storage.
Why does this matter?
A draw in inventories means demand and refining are greater than incoming supply. A build in inventories is read by the market the opposite way.
The main thing here is not the minus itself, but the divergence from expectations. The market came into the report expecting a small build, but got a second consecutive draw.
Key point: first -3.06 million, now -1.892 million. The consensus got the sign wrong, and that is precisely what drives the price move.
What's next?
The EIA report is released every Wednesday at 17:30 Moscow time. The next publication is the key oil event of the week. The date is easy to keep in view in the economic calendar.
For oil futures, this is a standard window of elevated volatility:
- Before the numbers are released. The range tightens, the market waits for the data.
- The first minutes after. The range expands sharply.
If oil is your main instrument, it's worth choosing a challenge suited to commodity markets in advance.
Were you in oil at 17:30?
These half hours are familiar to anyone who trades commodities. The range tightens, then the number comes out - and a single candle covers the whole day at once. The question is not whether you guessed the sign of the inventories. The question is whether your program allows entry during this window. Some prop firms explicitly prohibit holding a position at the moment statistics are released, and some open oil only on higher-tier accounts. Such details are buried in the terms of a specific program, and it's easier to check them before paying for an evaluation than after an account is closed.