Movement numbers
Over the past week, oil gained noticeably: Brent (the European benchmark) rose by roughly 7% and approached the March peaks around $119.50. WTI, on this rally, reached $103.28, after which on Monday it gave back part of the move and is trading near $100.51.
Why it rose and why it pulled back
The rise came from geopolitics: fears of escalation between the US and Iran. The US State Department called for a broader withdrawal of American diplomatic personnel from Persian Gulf countries. Houthi strikes and attacks on Iranian tankers added to this, reportedly reducing part of the flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
What stopped buyers
Investors are cautious ahead of rate decisions: the Fed on Wednesday (the two-day meeting starts Tuesday), the ECB on Thursday, the Bank of Japan on Friday. The consensus is that all three hold rates unchanged.
What's next
The nearest chart reference points: support at $100.51 and the 20-day moving average zone at $95.68. The Relative Strength Index is 62.99, meaning there is still room before overbought territory. The calendar is packed this week: API oil inventory data comes out Tuesday, EIA data on Wednesday, and on November 3 the US midterm elections take place.
Did you hold oil over these three days?
A 7% weekly gain and a $3 pullback in a session is not about entry precision, but about what lot size you were sitting in this with and whether you are even allowed to hold a position on Wednesday evening. Some prop programs close trades before the rate decision, some consider such days normal work, and you find this out from the rules, not from a banner. In a week with the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan, the difference becomes more expensive than usual. It's worth checking this before oil goes back above $103.