What came out
GDP: +4.5% year on year versus a forecast of 4.4% and 4.3% a quarter earlier (at that time it was the weakest pace in more than three years). Quarter on quarter +1.2% versus 1.1% expected and 0.9% previously.
Retail sales for September: +1.1% versus a forecast of 0.5% - more than double August's 0.4% and the fastest growth since March. Industrial production: +5.5% versus 5.4% expected, a six-month high, driven by exporters of artificial intelligence equipment.
Where the hole remains
Fixed capital investment over nine months -7.2%, real estate investment -20.6%, infrastructure investment -4.2%. Growth for January-September 4.6%, that is, at the lower bound of Beijing's target of 4.5-5.0%.
Market reaction
Bitcoin rose along with Nasdaq futures, the Korean KOSPI index and Asian equities - strong Chinese data and cheaper oil helped at the same time. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, which trade as a bet on Chinese growth, also strengthened.
What's next
The strong figures reduce the chances of a new large stimulus package: already on Tuesday, October 20, China announces its decision on the LPR rate, and expectations of a cut have weakened after the report. For reference: earlier Beijing directed 550 billion yuan of unused debt quotas to support local budgets, and the IMF last week cut its forecast for China's 2026 growth to 4.5%.
China's statistics are released at 05:00 Moscow time
Figures from Asia arrive overnight, and crypto reacts first - while the US market is still asleep. If you hold BTC through such data releases, the question is not only about direction: in some prop programs, a trade within a minute of a macro data release is considered a violation, in some, holding a position overnight is prohibited, and in others both are allowed. This is not fine print, it is the reason accounts get closed the day after a profitable trade. It makes sense to sort out the terms before Tuesday, when China announces the LPR rate.