On Tuesday at 17:00 MSK, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported: in August, job openings remained at 7.079 million versus the expected 7.225-7.230 million. That is 146 thousand worse than the forecast and 256 thousand below the July level.
What exactly came out
JOLTS is a monthly report on job openings and staff turnover. It counts available jobs on the last business day of the month. July was revised upward - from 7.271 million to 7.335 million. The ratio of openings to total employment was 4.3%.
The rest of the report is calm
Hires are holding around 5.2 million. The July figure was revised upward from 5.1 million. Quits totaled 3.1 million, the rate - 1.9%, unchanged. Layoffs and discharges - 1.6 million, the rate - 1.0%, also almost unchanged.
What this means
Employers are posting fewer openings, but they are not laying people off en masse. Demand fell most sharply among small companies. The share of openings at companies with 1-9 employees declined. The BLS itself called the change in openings "insignificant," but the miss versus consensus points to cooling demand for workers.
Why this is about the rate
Fewer openings - less pressure on the labor market, and this is an argument for the Fed in favor of easing. The counterargument - hires did not collapse and layoffs did not accelerate. Therefore, the market's attention shifts to the next report.
The nearest date
The September employment report will be released on Friday, October 2, at 15:30 MSK. Consensus:
- nonfarm payrolls - +90 thousand after strong +162 thousand in August;
- unemployment - 4.1% unchanged;
- wage growth - +0.3% month-over-month.
Held a position at 17:00 Moscow time?
In three days it will be the same thing, only harsher: at 15:30 MSK the employment data will be released, and in the first minutes the market rips through dozens of points. The question is different: some prop programs consider trading on the data release a violation and close the account, some allow everything. Somewhere else there is a ban on holding a position through the news. This is checked before buying a challenge, not after the blocking letter