Services PMI - 57.9 against a forecast of 58.0 and 59.8 a month earlier. Manufacturing PMI - 56.0 versus a forecast of 55.5 and 57.0 in September. Composite index - 57.6 against 58.4.
PMI is a business activity index based on surveys of purchasing managers: above 50 means growth versus the previous month, below 50 means contraction.
The headline isn't the main thing - what's inside the report is: output prices rose the most since August 2022, and new orders hit their highest in more than four and a half years. The September survey had already shown the strongest employment since June 2022 and costs at their highest since October 2022.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says the output data are consistent with the economy growing at 5% year-on-year after 4% in the third quarter. Rising oil prices, supply disruptions and growing order backlogs are allowing companies to pass costs on to buyers, so inflation, he says, will move further above the Fed's target.
Gold has slid to a three-month low: the market reads the acceleration in prices driven by expensive oil as an argument for a tougher Fed stance.
The preliminary report is compiled from roughly 85% of responses; the final figures will be out in the first days of November and rarely differ much. The Fed meeting is next week.
Did you trade the first minutes after 16:45?
All the interest in such reports is in the two minutes after publication; the rest of the day plays out in a range. It's just that at some prop firms, trading in the data release window counts as a rules violation, and elsewhere that's simply when leverage gets cut and spreads widen. You check the list of what's allowed before publication, not after your account gets stopped out. The Fed meets as early as next week, so there isn't much time to figure it out.