Gold went above $4,100 during the US stock selloff, then rolled back by Friday morning. On Thursday the metal bounced from $4,057 and gained about 1%. Then the dollar recovered its losses, and the price went back below $4,100.
XAU/USD is the price of a troy ounce of gold in dollars. The metal usually rises when investors exit stocks and when the dollar weakens.
For traders, the main event of the day is the US jobs report. It comes out today.
How strong was the surge?
Cycle peak - $4,146. Gold climbed to a two-week high. Falling stocks drove the metal.
- Nasdaq 100 - down almost 5.9%
- S&P 500 - down 3.8%
- Dow Jones - down 2.9%
Why did the metal go up?
- Yields down. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell 6 basis points, to 4.829%.
- Dollar weaker. The DXY dollar index slid to 101.19 and stayed around 101.46.
- Rate in question. The probability of a Fed rate hike at the December meeting fell from 82% to 66% in a day, according to CME FedWatch futures. CME FedWatch calculates market rate expectations from futures prices.
The logic is simple. Cheaper dollar - more expensive metal.
What did the data show?
The US labor market stayed strong. The fresh statistics came out before the price reversal.
- 189K claims for unemployment benefits in the week to October 31, versus 195K the week before and a forecast of 196K.
- 43,994 layoffs announced in October, per Challenger, versus 43,281 a month earlier.
- 444,692 positions in hiring plans, 57% more than in 2025.
Voices from the Fed. Beth Hammack, head of the Cleveland Fed, and Thomas Barkin, head of the Richmond Fed, spoke on the same day about gradual rate hikes and inflation being too high.
What's next?
Reversal in the dollar. By Friday morning yields had bounced from a two-month low, and DXY had pulled up to 101.80. Bets on a December hike returned to 70%.
The jobs report. Expectations are +65K jobs versus +29K a month earlier, with unemployment at 4.2%. The release time is in the economic calendar.
- Downside: $4,080 and the round $4,000, then the November 4 low of $3,919 and the annual low of $3,879 from October 30.
- Upside: the 50- and 100-day moving averages at $4,205 and $4,203.
You can trade moves like these on a prop firm account too - find a challenge for metals.
Key point: gold rose on the stock selloff and a weak dollar. The dollar recovered its losses, and the metal immediately went back below $4,100.
Did you watch gold fly during the Nasdaq crash?
The picture was clear: stocks tumble, the metal goes up, you saw it in the terminal with your own eyes. It all comes down to trading notional: on one gold lot, a forty-dollar surge produces an amount you don't notice on your account. In prop trading, the company provides the size: a paid selection for discipline and loss limits, then its account and an agreed share of the result. It's worth walking through this scheme step by step before the next selloff like this.