Numbers vs. expectations: headline sales +0.8% for the month versus a forecast of +0.3%, August was revised up to +1.2% from +1.1%. Ex-autos +0.9% versus a forecast of +0.5%. But the control group (a narrow set of categories that feeds directly into the consumption calculation in GDP) added only +0.1% versus a forecast of +0.3% after a revised +1.4% the month before.
Why the headline is so strong: total retail rose by $5.70 billion, of which $4.07 billion is gas stations, i.e. 71% of the increase. Fuel sales jumped 6.4% for the month and 28.1% for the year. Restaurants and bars added another $967 million (+1.1%). Together these two categories accounted for about 88% of the entire increase. Ex-gasoline, retail rose only 0.2%.
Across the other categories the picture is choppy: furniture +1.3%, electronics +0.6%, clothing unchanged, general merchandise slightly lower, sporting goods and books -0.5%, miscellaneous retail -3.0%. Auto dealers added a modest +0.2%. Online sales rose 0.3% after about 2.0% in August, but remain 8.1% above last year.
What's next: retail counts dollars spent, so expensive fuel inflates the figure without real demand growth. The strong headline is an argument against a rapid rate cut and support for the dollar and US Treasury yields, while the miss in the control group weakens that signal. The market got a report that can be read either way.
Did you trade the dollar at 15:31?
Reports like this produce the nastiest moves: the headline beats the forecast, a minute later you look at the control group and the price goes back. You can only trade this on a prop firm account where the rules allow it: some programs explicitly prohibit entering a few minutes before and after the release, others build their entire premise on it. The question isn't your accuracy, but which rules were signed before the trade. The next batch of US data comes out this week.