Silver broke through the lower boundary of its annual range and fell to an 11-month low. This happened on Thursday, October 29. The boundary ran at $52.60, and the price moved to $52.34 — a level not seen since November 2025.
XAG/USD is the price of silver in dollars. The annual range is the corridor within which the metal traded all year; a break out of it changes market sentiment.
The reason is rates. The market is increasingly expecting another Fed rate hike in December. For a trader, this means annual support for silver has been broken and new levels lie ahead.
Which levels matter now?
At the time of publication, the metal was worth $52.36. The price is holding at the base of a descending channel that stretches from the lows of late August.
- $51.85 — the base of this channel, key support below.
- $50.00 — a psychological level that will open up after the channel breaks.
- $48.65 — the low of late November 2025.
- $54.85 — the nearest resistance, the former annual lows.
- $58.50 — the next zone above.
Why is silver falling?
- The Fed is holding steady. On Wednesday the regulator left the rate unchanged, as the market expected. It is assessing the effect of the September hike.
- Warsh gave no hint. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said nothing about December. But he confirmed the course toward returning inflation to target.
- Futures are betting on a rate increase. After the meeting, they estimate the probability of a 0.25 pp hike in December at 83% versus 77% a week earlier.
Silver does not generate interest income, so the higher the expected rates, the more expensive it is to hold the metal instead of dollar instruments.
What does this mean for a trader?
It weighs on the whole sector. Gold traded below $4,050 in the US session. The dollar rose moderately, although DXY momentum is weak. DXY is the dollar index against a basket of currencies.
- RSI(14) on the 4-hour chart is just above the oversold zone.
- MACD has moved below zero.
Key point: the market is on the edge. The price sits at the base of the channel, indicators point down, and the December Fed rate decides everything.
What's next?
- ECB decision at 16:15 Moscow time. This is the nearest external trigger on the same day. The market expected rates to be held at 2.65% and 2.50% after the September 25-basis-point hike.
- The December Fed meeting. The main date for silver; it's worth keeping in the economic calendar.
For this kind of volatility in metals, it's more convenient to choose a challenge in advance.
Did you short this breakout on your own deposit?
A breakout of the annual range in silver plays out within hours. Everyone who waited for it ran into the same thing: how many lots their own deposit allows. The path from $52.60 to $52.34 on minimum volume is a dinner, but on a hundred-thousand nominal it's a completely different figure in the report. Prop trading changes exactly this link: the trading nominal is provided by the company, you pay for selection and work within its limits for a share of the profit. Before the December Fed meeting there is time to understand how such access works.